What guidance, if any, did management provide for Q3 and full-year 2025 revenue and test volumes?

Management Guidance – None Provided in the Release

GRAIL’s second‑quarter 2025 earnings release highlights a 21 % YoY increase in U.S. Galleri revenue to $34.2 million and a 29 % YoY rise in Galleri tests sold ( >45 k) but does not contain any forward‑looking guidance for Q3 2025 or for the full‑year 2025, neither for revenue nor for test‑volume expectations. The filing simply notes that results from the first 25,000 patients enrolled in the PATHFINDER‑2 study will be presented at ESMO 2025 in October, but it stops short of quantifying future sales or volumes.

Trading Implications

• Fundamentals: The strong YoY growth in revenue and tests sold suggests the underlying business trajectory remains positive, but the absence of guidance adds uncertainty to the forward‑looking valuation. Investors typically penalize a lack of guidance with a modest discount, especially in a growth‑stage biotech where expectations are driven by forward estimates of test adoption and reimbursement.
• Market Reaction: In the short term, the stock may experience a modest pull‑back on the earnings day as traders re‑price the missing guidance. Watch the pre‑market and early‑session price action for a potential 1‑2 % decline on the news, with a possible rebound if the market interprets the strong Q2 numbers as a de‑facto “beat” of expectations.
• Actionable Steps:
  
  1. Short‑term: Consider a modest sell‑or‑short position (or a protective put for long‑holders) if the stock opens lower, aiming for a 2‑3 % gain as the market digests the lack of forward guidance.
     
  2. Medium‑term: Keep a watch on the upcoming ESMO 2025 presentation; any quantitative data released there could serve as the de‑facto forward guidance and may trigger a rebound.
     
  3. Risk Management: Set tight stop‑losses (≈3–4 % from entry) because the stock’s movement will be driven largely by next‑quarter guidance, which may be provided in the Q3 earnings call. If guidance is later provided and is optimistic, the short position could be at risk, so be prepared to reverse or hedge the position.