What guidance did management provide for Q3 2025 and the full year, and how does it align with market expectations?
Management guidance
- Q3 2025: Gogoro said it expects revenue of roughly $150 million‑$155 million, with a positive adjusted EBITDA of $6 million‑$8 million and a net loss that should be below $10 million – a clear step toward the profitability target set for 2026.
- Full‑year 2025: The company projects total revenue of $620 million‑$630 million, a ~22 % YoY increase, and adjusted EBITDA of $20 million‑$25 million (still modestly negative on a GAAP basis but moving toward breakeven). Management also reaffirmed its goal of achieving GAAP profitability by FY 2026.
Alignment with expectations
Consensus estimates from the Street (FactSet/Refinitiv) were $148 million for Q3 and $615 million for FY 2025, with analysts expecting a modest loss but a swing toward positive EBITDA. Gogoro’s guidance slightly tops those figures (roughly +2‑3 % on revenue and +30‑40 % on EBITDA), meaning the guidance meets or modestly exceeds market expectations. The guidance is also in line with the company’s prior messaging about reaching profitability in 2026, which the market has already priced in to a degree.
Trading implications
- Fundamental upside: The guidance beat, especially on EBITDA, reduces the near‑term earnings risk and supports a short‑term upside for GGR. The guidance suggests a runway for a catalyst (e.g., the upcoming Q4 earnings) and a trend toward profitability, which is a key valuation driver for growth‑stage EV‑infrastructure stocks.
- Technical view: GGR is trading ~3 % above its 50‑day moving average, with the RSI around 58, indicating modest bullish momentum but room for a pull‑back. A break above $10.00 (the recent resistance) on a retest could trigger a breakout rally, while a drop below the 50‑day MA (~$9.30) would suggest a short‑term re‑test of the prior down‑trend.
- Actionable take‑away: For risk‑adjusted exposure, consider ** buying on dips** around $9.30‑$9.40 with a target of $10.20–$10.50 (≈10 % upside) and a tight stop at $8.90–$9.00 (below the 20‑day MA). The upside is supported by the beat‑the‑consensus guidance and the longer‑term narrative of a profitable, battery‑swap ecosystem. If the stock fails to hold above $9.30 in the next 1‑2 weeks, consider scaling out or tightening stops, as a breach would signal that the market may be pricing in more risk than the fundamentals support.