How will the revised guidance affect the company's valuation multiples (EV/EBITDA, P/E, etc.)?

Impact on valuation multiples

FLSmidth’s 2025 guidance now shows a higher adjusted EBITA margin but a lower revenue outlook. The upgraded margin means the company expects to extract more profit from each unit of sales, yet the reduced top‑line dampens the absolute size of EBITDA and net income. Consequently:

• EV/EBITDA is likely to expand (rise) because the market will price the firm on a smaller EBITDA base while the enterprise value (EV) stays roughly unchanged. An expanding EV/EBITDA signals a less‑attractive valuation unless the margin upgrade is viewed as a durable, high‑margin shift that could sustain cash‑flow quality.
  
• P/E will also move higher (widen) for the same reason—projected earnings are trimmed by the revenue downgrade, so the price‑to‑earnings ratio widens unless the market discounts the stock to reflect the weaker growth trajectory.

Trading implications

• Short‑term bias: The immediate reaction will be down‑pressure on the share price as investors re‑price the lower earnings forecast, especially if the margin upgrade is not enough to offset the revenue shortfall. Expect the price to test recent support around the 20‑day moving average and the prior low‑volume swing‑low.
  
• Risk‑reward set‑up: If the price breaks below that support with heightened volume, a short‑position or a sell‑on‑close could be justified, targeting the next technical trough (≈ 5‑6% below the breakout level). Conversely, if the market begins to price‑in the higher margin as a structural improvement—evidenced by a bounce off the 20‑day average and a shift to positive momentum—consider a long‑bias on a pull‑back to the 20‑day moving average, aiming for a retest of the prior high‑volume resistance zone.
  

In short, the revised guidance pushes valuation multiples into a wider, less‑favorable range, creating downward pressure on the stock unless the margin upgrade is convincingly framed as a sustainable, high‑margin transformation. Traders should watch the price’s interaction with short‑term technical levels to decide between a short‑bias or a cautious, pull‑back‑long approach.