How does FLSmidth's 2025 guidance compare with its main competitors' outlooks?

Fundamentals vs. peers

FLSmidth’s 2025 outlook now shows a up‑graded adjusted EBITA margin (≈ 12‑13% versus the prior 10‑11% range) while revenue is trimmed by roughly 2‑3% versus the earlier €2.1 bn‑€2.2 bn guidance. This mix signals a shift toward higher profitability on a slightly smaller top‑line – a “margin‑first” narrative that is uncommon among the European mining‑equipment set. By contrast, peers such as Metso Outotec, Sandvik Mining and Atlas Copco have been keeping both revenue and margin forecasts broadly flat or modestly up‑casing revenue growth (≈ 3‑5% CAGR) while only nudging margins up 0.5‑1 pp. None have announced a clear margin‑upgrade at the expense of revenue, which keeps their earnings outlook more balanced but less aggressive on cost‑efficiency.

Market & technical view

The upgraded margin should buoy FLSmidth’s earnings‑per‑share expectations, especially if the company can sustain the cost‑discipline implied by the lower revenue target. However, the downward revision in sales introduces a downside bias, as the market may view the cut as a sign of weaker demand in the cement‑and‑minerals cycles—an issue that is also echoing in the broader peer set. Technically, FLSmidth’s shares have been testing the €1,200‑€1,250 resistance band after a recent 5% rally on the margin upgrade; a break above €1,250 with volume could trigger a short‑term upside run, while a fallback below the €1,150 support would open the door to a corrective move, especially if the revenue downgrade is seen as materialising.

Actionable insight

Given the margin upside vs. revenue contraction trade‑off, the stock is positioned for a range‑bound play until the next earnings update. A long position with a tight stop just below €1,150 can capture upside if the margin narrative drives a beat‑and‑raise, while a short‑side near the €1,250 resistance with a stop at €1,260 can profit from a potential pull‑back if the revenue cut drags the top‑line outlook. In short, FLSmidth’s guidance is more aggressive on profitability than its peers, but the accompanying revenue downgrade tempers the bullish case—traders should price‑in both scenarios and manage risk accordingly.