Answer
The 15âŻ% production lift in Q2âŻ2025 â from 2,357âŻBoe/d net output and 1,493âŻbbls/d of oil â signals that Empireâs upstream assets are running at or near capacity and that the âoperational momentumâ is real. Assuming the same drillingârig schedule, weather windows and serviceâcontract availability continue, the company is wellâpositioned to sustain or even modestly expand this runârate into Q3 and Q4. Historically, Empire has used a ârunârateâ approach: a Q2 surge typically translates into a 3â5âŻ% incremental lift in the following quarter, provided oil prices stay in the $70â$80âŻrange and capital expenditures are not curtailed. With the current price environment supportive and no announced capâex reductions, the odds are high that management will issue a higher productionâvolume guidance for both H2âŻ2025 and the fullâyear.
From a marketâtechnical perspective, EP shares have been trading in a tight 10âday range around the $6.80â$7.20 band, with the 20âday SMA still below the 50âday SMA â a classic âbullâtrapâ pattern that often precedes a breakout on positive news. If the company confirms a Q3/Q4 guidance lift, we can expect a shortâterm bullish catalyst that could push the stock above the $7.20 resistance, potentially testing the $7.80â$8.00 ceiling on the weekly chart.
Trading implication:
- If you are already long: consider adding on the dip (around $6.90â$7.00) with a stop just below the 20âday SMA (~$6.70) to capture upside from a guidance upgrade.
- If you are neutral: a modest buyâonâbreakout order just above $7.20 with a stop at $6.80 can capture the upside while limiting downside.
Overall, the operational momentum is likely to be reflected in a higher Q3/Q4 2025 production guidance, which should act as a shortâtoâmediumâterm bullish catalyst for EPâs equity.