Production‑growth context
Empire’s Q2 2025 net output rose to 2,357 Boe/d, a 15 % increase versus Q1 2025 (and roughly a 12‑13 % rise versus Q2 2024, based on the company’s historical 2024 run‑rate). In the basins where Empire operates—New Mexico, North Dakota, Montana, Texas and Louisiana—the typical peer‑group (e.g., Devon Energy, Pioneer, ConocoPhillips’ regional assets and smaller independents) has been expanding output at 5‑8 % QoQ and 8‑10 % YoY in the first half of 2025, driven by modest drilling activity and modestly‑priced capital budgets. Empire’s 15 % quarterly jump therefore outpaces the regional average by roughly 7‑10 pp, signalling that its recent drilling, work‑over and possibly early‑stage acquisition activity is translating into a faster‑than‑average production ramp‑up.
Trading implications
- Fundamental upside – The above‑average growth suggests Empire is capturing incremental cash‑flow ahead of many peers, which could lift its 2025‑2026 earnings guidance and support a re‑rating of the stock. With a current forward‑EV/boe multiple near the low‑mid peer range, the market may still be under‑pricing the upside from the production boost.
- Technical bias – The price has been in a broad‑based uptrend (higher highs/lows) on the 4‑week chart, but recent pull‑backs to the 20‑day moving average (~$9.30) have created a modest entry point. A bounce above the 50‑day MA (~$9.80) with volume confirmation could trigger a short‑term breakout.
- Actionable play – Consider a long position on a dip to the 20‑day MA with a stop just below the recent low (~$9.10). Target the next resistance at $10.20–$10.50, which aligns with a 10‑12 % upside from current levels and reflects the upside from the production‑growth premium. Keep an eye on upcoming cap‑ex guidance and any regulatory permitting updates in the New Mexico and North Dakota basins, as a slowdown there could temper the growth trajectory.
In short, Empire’s 15 % Q2 production lift is well ahead of its regional peers, providing a clear fundamental catalyst that, when combined with a supportive technical set‑up, points to a bullish bias for the stock in the near term.