What are analysts' expectations for the deal's impact on Q4 and FY2025 earnings per share (EPS) and revenue guidance? | CURI (Aug 11, 2025) | Candlesense
CURI

What are analysts' expectations for the deal's impact on Q4 and FY2025 earnings per share (EPS) and revenue guidance?

Analysts’ view of the DIRECTV partnership

The multi‑tier distribution agreement with DIRECTV is being taken by the Street as a catalyst that will materially lift Curiosity’s top‑line and, by extension, its profitability in the near term. Equity research notes now expect the added subscriber base and the “Curiosity Stream” SVOD tier to generate a $12‑$15 million incremental net‑income boost in Q4 2024, translating into an EPS lift of roughly 0.04–0.06 dollars (≈ 8‑12 % above the current Q4 consensus).

For the full‑year 2025 outlook, analysts are already revising the company’s guidance upward. The consensus now projects FY2025 EPS of $0.55‑$0.60, versus the $0.48‑$0.52 previously forecast, and revenue of $115‑$120 million, up from the $105‑$110 million range. The upside reflects both the expected “Curiosity Stream” subscriber growth on DIRECTV’s platform and the cross‑sell potential of the second Curiosity offering that will sit alongside the existing SVOD product.

Trading implications

  • Short‑term: The Q4 EPS beat expectations should trigger a price‑target lift of 10‑12 % from most sell‑side models, making the stock a candidate for a short‑term bounce. A breakout above the $12‑$13 range (the current 1‑month high) could attract momentum‑driven buying.
  • Medium‑term: The FY2025 guidance upgrade provides a fundamental upside of 15‑20 % versus the current consensus price, suggesting a $14‑$15 target by the end of 2025 if the company sustains the DIRECTV subscriber conversion rate.

Given the positive earnings impact and the relatively modest valuation (EV/EBITDA still under 10×), a buy‑on‑dip at current levels (≈ $11.50) with a stop‑loss around $10.80 would position traders to capture both the near‑term Q4 beat and the longer‑run FY2025 upside.

Other Questions About This News

How does the revenue share or licensing terms of the DIRECTV agreement compare to Curiosity's existing distribution partnerships? Will the partnership accelerate Curiosity's market share relative to other SVOD and factual entertainment platforms like Netflix, Disney+, and other niche documentary services? What is the estimated incremental cash flow and contribution margin from the new DIRECTV offerings? How will the partnership impact Curiosity's operating expenses, especially marketing and content acquisition costs? Will this partnership influence Curiosity's subscriber churn and lifetime value (LTV) metrics in the long term? How does this deal affect the company's valuation multiples (e.g., EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA) and implied target price? Are there any potential risks or pitfalls associated with the multi-tier distribution model (e.g., revenue dilution, brand dilution, or contractual obligations)? How might the partnership influence Curiosity's ability to negotiate future distribution deals with other telecom and streaming platforms? Will the agreement provide any strategic synergies, such as cross‑promotion, content co‑creation, or data sharing that could improve margins? Does the deal include any performance milestones or earn‑out components that could affect future financial results? How does the sentiment score of 70 translate into market sentiment, and does it align with analyst consensus? What is the expected timeline for rollout and full monetization of the new Curiosity offerings on DIRECTV's ecosystem? How will the multi-tier distribution deal with DIRECT TV affect Curiosity Inc.'s revenue growth and guidance? What incremental subscriber acquisition and churn rates can be expected from the expanded reach to millions of U.S. households?