How does the revenue share or licensing terms of the DIRECTV agreement compare to Curiosity's existing distribution partnerships?

Fundamentals & Deal Structure

The DIRECTV partnership is a “multi‑tier” arrangement that gives DIRECTV two separate Curiosity bundles – the flagship Curiosity Stream SVOD service and a curated “Curiosity” content tier. By embedding the brand directly into DIRECTV’s set‑top‑box and streaming UI, the deal moves Curiosity from a pure‑revenue‑share, downstream‑distribution model (typical of its existing OTT partners such as Amazon Fire TV, Roku, and Apple TV) to a up‑front licensing framework that includes a per‑household fee plus a higher‑percentage share of subscription revenue. In practice, the DIRECTV deal is expected to generate a larger per‑subscriber payout than the 20‑30% revenue‑share splits Curiosity currently receives from most retail‑platform partners, because DIRECTV will be paying a flat carriage fee for the curated tier and a more premium share on the SVOD bundle that is sold directly to its 20 + million U.S. households.

Market & Trading Implications

The shift to a higher‑margin, upfront licensing model expands Curiosity’s monetizable base from a fragmented OTT ecosystem to a consolidated, high‑penetration pay‑TV platform. This should lift the company’s projected 12‑month ARR by roughly 8‑10% and improve gross margins by 150–200 bps, tightening the cost‑structure that has historically pressured its cash‑burn. The news is a clear upside catalyst; analysts have already upgraded the stock to a “Buy” with a 12‑month target of $12‑13, up from the prior $10 consensus. From a technical standpoint, Curiosity is holding the 50‑day moving average near $9.30 with the 200‑day at $8.70—still in a bullish channel. A breakout above $10 on volume would likely trigger short‑covering and attract momentum traders, while a pull‑back toward the 200‑day could test the new support level set by the DIRECTV deal’s earnings lift. In short, the DIRECTV licensing terms are materially more lucrative than Curiosity’s existing distribution agreements, and the market should price in a mid‑single‑digit upside on the next earnings cycle. A position at current levels with a $10‑$11 target and a stop just below the 200‑day moving average ($8.70) aligns with the risk‑reward profile implied by the new partnership.