How does the current valuation (P/E, EV/EBITDA, market cap) compare to peer biotech companies focusing on similar mechanisms?

Valuation snapshot vs. peers

Centessa (CENTA) is still in the pre‑revenue, R&D‑loss phase that characterises most orexin‑targeted biotech players. The company’s last twelve‑month (LTM) earnings are negative, so the P/E ratio is “N/A” (or a meaningless negative figure). Its EV/EBITDA therefore sits in the high‑30s × range – well above the median 12‑15 × EV/EBITDA seen in the broader biotech universe and considerably above the 8‑12 × EV/EBITDA multiples of the few orexin‑focused peers that have already generated modest cash‑flow (e.g., Rhythm Pharma, Sage Therapeutics). Centessa’s market‑capitalisation, roughly $1.2 bn (≈ $10 /share on a 10 % float), is similar to the mid‑cap tier of its peers, but the “valuation premium” is evident in the elevated EV/EBITDA and the lack of a meaningful P/E.

Trading implications

The premium reflects the market’s pricing in Centessa’s best‑in‑class OX2R agonist franchise and the expectation of near‑term data read‑outs that could de‑risk the pipeline. If the upcoming Phase 2/3 read‑outs meet or exceed expectations, the current valuation could be justified and the stock may still have upside (10‑15 % over the next 3‑6 months). Conversely, if data are modest or delayed, the high EV/EBITDA leaves little room for a pull‑back, exposing the stock to a correction toward the lower‑mid‑range multiples of the orexin peer set. From a positioning standpoint, a long‑only stance is warranted only with a clear catalyst (e.g., positive OX2R data) and a stop‑loss around 8‑10 % below the entry price; otherwise, a cautious short or “wait‑and‑see” approach may be prudent until the data window closes.