What is the timeline for the FPSO construction and delivery, and how might project milestones influence the stock's near-term volatility?

Timeline & milestones

BW Offshore’s Heads of Agreement with Equinor confirms that the Bay du Nord FPSO will now move from the “contract‑award” phase into full‑engineering and build‑out. In the offshore‑FPS‑market a typical “new‑build” programme runs about 24–30 months from hull‑fabrication start‑up to final delivery and commissioning. Given the agreement was only just signed, the hull‑construction contract is expected to be let in the next 2–3 months, putting the first steel‑cut in Q4 2024 and the start of outfitting in Q1 2025. Assuming a 27‑month build window, the vessel would likely be delivered and ready for the Bay du Nord field‑start‑up by mid‑2026.

Volatility drivers

Each of those project checkpoints—hull‑lay‑down, module‑installation, “float‑off” and final commissioning—has historically generated short‑term spikes in BW Offshore’s share‑price as analysts and market participants reassess execution risk. The initial hull‑contract award (now) should already lend upside pressure; a clear‑cut “float‑off” date later in 2025 would likely trigger another rally. Conversely, any signs of schedule‑slippage (e.g., delayed steel‑cut or supply‑chain bottlenecks) tend to produce heightened downside volatility in the weeks surrounding the news flow.

Trading implications

- Short‑term (next 4–8 weeks): The market is still pricing the news of the agreement, so the stock is expected to be in a modestly bullish bias with limited upside cushion. A break above the recent high (≈ $4.00) could open a short‑term breakout trade; a breach below the low (≈ $3.45) would expose a “delay‑risk” correction.

- Mid‑term (12–24 weeks): Watch for the first engineering‑milestone press‑release (hull‑contract award, module‑delivery). If the timeline stays on‑track, the price may drift higher; a missed milestone would likely trigger a sharp sell‑off. Position sizing with a stop just inside the 30‑day moving‑average band can protect against the expected volatility bursts.

Overall, the stock should experience a series of volatility spikes aligned with the FPSO’s construction milestones. Traders can capture upside on each on‑schedule announcement while keeping tight stops around the technical trendlines to manage the inherent project‑execution risk.