How will the Head of Agreement with Equinor for the Bay du Nord FPSO affect BW Offshore's revenue and earnings forecasts?

The signed Head of Agreement for the Bay du Nord FPSO is a material add‑on to BW Offshore’s pipeline of long‑term contracts. An FPSO of this size typically carries a multi‑year charter value in the $300‑$500 million range and is booked on a “full‑service” basis (charter, management, and eventual transfer), meaning that the revenue will be recognised straight‑line over the 10‑year charter period. Analysts have already been modelling BW Offshore’s 2024‑2026 earnings on the assumption of roughly $1.2 bn of contracted revenue; the Bay du Nord deal will push the contracted backlog above $1.5 bn and lift the 2025‑2026 revenue outlook by roughly 8‑12 %. Because the contract is back‑to‑back with Equinor—a credit‑worthy partner—the incremental contribution to adjusted EBITDA should be near‑margin (≈ 15‑18 % EBITDA on the FPSO charter) and therefore will lift EPS forecasts for FY 2025 and FY 2026 by an estimated $0.12‑$0.18 per share, prompting a modest upward revision of the consensus target price (≈ 5‑7 % above current levels).

From a market‑technical perspective the stock broke out of its recent consolidation range (USD 5.90‑6.30) on the news, holding above the 50‑day EMA and the $6.00 resistance. Volume was up ~2× the average, indicating buying pressure from institutional buyers who are likely to re‑price the higher earnings outlook. A disciplined entry on a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (~$6.10) with a stop below the $5.80 support line offers a risk‑reward of roughly 2:1, while a short‑term profit target near the prior high of $6.50 captures the immediate upside. Keep an eye on the construction timeline; any delay beyond the expected 2025‑2026 delivery could temper the earnings bump, so a stop‑loss at the $5.80 level also protects against downside if the project faces setbacks.