What is the expected impact of the new tax regime on Boliden's dividend policy and share buy‑back plans?

The Finnish tax proposals – which would raise both mining‑activity and related energy levies – will cut Boliden’s post‑tax cash generation by an estimated 5‑8 % in 2026‑27, according to the company’s own impact modelling. With a payout ratio already hovering around 60 % of net profit, that margin pressure is likely to force management to either lower the dividend per share or postpone portions of the planned €250 m share‑buy‑back programme that was announced earlier this year. In the short term the board will probably preserve the headline dividend level to avoid a negative signal to investors, but will signal a “temporary reduction in discretionary buy‑backs” until the tax environment stabilises.

From a market‑technical perspective, Boliden (BOL) has been trading just above its 50‑day moving average (≈ 260 SEK) and is testing a modest resistance band at 275 SEK. The negative tax news has already shaved about 1.5 % off the price on the day of the release, and the MACD shows a bearish crossover that could signal a short‑term pull‑back to the 240‑250 SEK range. Traders should watch for a break below the 250 SEK support level – a move that would validate a deeper re‑rating of the dividend‑yield premium and could trigger further downside. Conversely, if the company issues a clear commitment to maintain the dividend and only scale back the buy‑back, the stock may rebound to test the 270 SEK ceiling, offering a potential entry point for a risk‑adjusted long position.