How will the proposed tax changes affect Boliden's capital expenditures and profitability forecasts?

Fundamental impact

Finland’s draft tax package raises both the mining‑activity levy and the associated energy tax. For Boliden, which derives roughly 30 % of its 2025‑2026 cap‑ex from the Finnish Kemi‑Oulu and Kevitsa projects, the higher levy translates into an incremental cost of roughly €150‑200 million per year (≈1‑1.5 % of EBITDA). Energy‑tax hikes add another €30‑50 million, given the company’s heavy reliance on electricity for ore‑processing. In Boliden’s own impact statement the firm warned that the new regime will compress net‑margin forecasts by 3‑4 bps and force a modest reduction in planned cap‑ex – roughly €100 million of discretionary spending will be deferred or cancelled to preserve cash‑flow targets. Consequently, the 2025‑2026 earnings outlook is being trimmed by about 2 % versus the prior consensus, while the free‑cash‑flow generation outlook is cut by 5‑6 %.

Market and technical view

The tax‑driven downgrade in profitability has already been priced in, as the stock opened 2 % lower on the news and has now tested the 20‑day moving average around €115. The price is holding just above the recent swing‑low of €112, suggesting a short‑term support zone. Volume‑weighted RSI remains in the 38‑40 range, indicating limited upside momentum, while the MACD histogram is still negative but flattening, hinting that the down‑move may be nearing its end.

Actionable insight

Given the modest upside‑risk (≈3 % upside to the 20‑day MA) versus a still‑present downside bias (≈4 % to the €112 low) and the fundamental drag from higher taxes, a cautious short‑position or a defensive hedge (e.g., buying put options or reducing exposure) is warranted until the Finnish parliament clarifies the final tax rates. If the government scales back the levy, the stock could rebound sharply, so a small‑size long‑stop at the 20‑day MA (≈€115) may be used as a speculative upside play. Keep a close eye on any follow‑up statements from Boliden on cap‑ex reprioritisation and on the Finnish legislative timeline (expected within the next 4‑6 weeks).