What is the expected development timeline and capital expenditure required to bring the Laver deposit into operation, and how does that align with Boliden’s current financial guidance?

Development timeline & capex – Boliden has repeatedly said that the Laver deposit will move into the construction phase once the mining concession is secured. The company’s 2024‑2025 investor presentation projected a 2029‑30 start‑up date, with a four‑year build‑out (2026‑29) that includes the bulk of the required infrastructure (shaft, surface plant and processing facilities). The total capital outlay for Laver has been budgeted at roughly 5–5.5 bn SEK (≈ €470 m / $520 m), of which about 1 bn SEK will be expended in 2026‑27 and the balance in the 2028‑29 window.

Fit with current guidance – Boliden’s latest 2025‑26 financial guidance anticipates total capex of 7‑8 bn SEK, covering ongoing mine extensions, sustainability upgrades and the Laver project. The newly granted concession clears the regulatory hurdle, meaning the Laver spend can stay on the originally outlined schedule without a material uplift to the company‑wide capex ceiling. Consequently, the project remains fully in‑line with the guidance and does not pressure near‑term cash‑flow forecasts; earnings guidance for 2025‑26 is therefore unlikely to be adjusted.

Trading implications – The concession news removed a major binary risk factor, prompting a ~3 % rally in BOL shares on the day of the release and pushing the price above its 50‑day moving average. Momentum indicators (RSI now ~58, MACD turning positive) suggest the upside could continue, especially if the company reiterates the 2029‑30 production start in upcoming earnings calls. For traders, the signal is to consider a short‑term long position or to add to existing exposure, while keeping a watch on any forward‑looking guidance revisions. A stop‑loss just below the 50‑day MA (~SEK 140) would protect against a sudden re‑assessment of the Laver timeline or a broader metals sell‑off.