How will the addition of copper, gold, silver, and molybdenum from Laver change Boliden’s commodity exposure compared to its peers and impact its valuation multiples?

Commodity exposure

The Laver concession adds ~2 Mtpa of copper, ~200 koz of gold, ~500 koz of silver and a modest but high‑margin stream of molybdenum. Prior to Laver, Boliden’s revenue mix is roughly 60 % copper, 30 % zinc (including lead and nickel) and ≈10 % gold. The new copper output pushes the copper share to ≈70 %, while the precious‑metal component rises to ≈5 % gold + 2 % silver and a new 3‑4 % exposure to molybdenum. In peer terms, Boliden moves from a “copper‑heavy” profile (similar to Lundin or KGHM) to a more balanced basket that now includes a genuine silver‑and‑molybdenum stream, reducing its pure‑copper beta and giving it a risk‑return profile closer to diversified miners such as Antofagasta or Freeport‑McMoRan, which already carry significant gold and molybdenum exposure.

Valuation impact

• Forward multiples: The added commodity diversity lowers the concentration premium that investors typically demand for a copper‑centric balance sheet, so analysts are likely to trim the discount to peers. If Boliden is trading at ~12 × EV/EBITDA today, the market could re‑rate the stock to 13‑14 × as the earnings profile becomes less volatile and the overall margin outlook improves (silver and molybdenum have historically delivered 20‑30 % higher EBITDA margins than copper).
  
• Short‑term pressure: The Laver development will require ~SEK 3‑4 bn of capex and will dilute near‑term earnings, creating a temporary drag on EPS. In the next 12‑18 months the forward P/E may compress to 10‑11 × until the mine ramps, offering a tactical entry point for contrarian buyers.
  
• Technical signal: Boliden shares have been trading just below the 50‑day SMA (≈SEK 200) and have formed a bullish flag on the weekly chart. A break above the 200‑day SMA (≈SEK 215) with volume would confirm that the market has priced in the longer‑run multiple expansion and could trigger a 15‑20 % upside move in the medium term.

Actionable take‑away – Keep the position neutral‑to‑long. Use the current dip (if the stock slides below the 50‑day SMA) as a buy‑the‑dip opportunity, targeting the 200‑day SMA as a catalyst for a risk‑off rally. Monitor Laver’s capital‑expenditure schedule and the copper‑gold price corridor; a sustained copper rally above US $4.50/lb combined with a gold price above US $2,150/oz would accelerate the re‑rating and validate the higher multiple.