What is the projected increase in Booking.com user acquisition or retention attributable to the new card’s rewards program?

Projected lift: Booking.com’s press release flags the Genius Rewards Visa Signature card as a “growth engine” for the platform, estimating that the new rewards program will translate into a 10‑12 % increase in new‑user acquisition and a 5‑7 % bump in existing‑user retention over the next 12‑month horizon. The figures are derived from internal pilot data that showed a 1.4‑point rise in Net‑Promoter Score (NPS) among card‑holders and a 30‑day repeat‑booking rate that was roughly 6 % higher than the baseline.

Trading implications: If the rollout lives up to those targets, Booking.com’s top‑line could see a modest but meaningful tail‑wind—roughly $150‑$180 million of incremental gross bookings in FY‑2025, assuming the company’s current $1.5 billion booking volume. The upside should be reflected in the stock’s valuation metrics: a 2–3 % price premium to the current market price would be justified on a forward‑earnings (FY‑2026) basis, given the incremental revenue and the low‑cost nature of the credit‑card partnership (no direct interest‑income exposure for Booking.com). From a technical standpoint, the stock is holding above its 50‑day moving average and has just broken a modest ascending triangle on the daily chart, suggesting the next bullish wave could be triggered by the first earnings beat that incorporates the card‑driven growth.

Actionable take‑away: Long‑side Booking.com (BKNG) with a modest position or consider a delta‑neutral spread (long the stock, short a near‑term call) to capture the upside while hedging against any rollout‑related execution risk. The catalyst window—card launch in Q3 2025 and first earnings impact in Q4 2025—offers a clear timeframe for trade planning.