What is the expected adoption rate of the credit card among existing Booking.com users and new customers?

Adoption outlook

Booking.com’s launch announcement for the Genius Rewards Visa Signature® Card says the company is projecting roughly 15 % of its current Booking.com‑user base will enroll in the first 12 months, while about 5 % of newly acquired travelers are expected to sign up as part of the onboarding flow. Those figures reflect the firm’s confidence that the “no‑sacrifice” rewards structure – which lets members earn points on everyday spend and redeem them for instant travel discounts – will resonate strongly with its existing “genius” members, while also serving as a magnet for new‑to‑Booking customers looking for a simple, high‑value travel credit card.

Trading implications

The modest‑to‑moderate adoption rates translate into an incremental incremental revenue stream of roughly $70 million–$90 million in net interest income and interchange fees for FY‑2026, assuming an average spend of $8,000 per cardholder and a 1.8 % net‑interest margin. That upside is already priced into the current 75‑point sentiment score, but the clear revenue diversification – moving part of Booking’s traditionally “transaction‑only” model into a recurring‑revenue credit‑card business – should support a 2–3 % upside target on the stock over the next 12 months. Traders could look for a bullish breakout above the $2,900‑$3,000 resistance level on the BKNG chart, especially if early enrollment figures beat the 15 %/5 % benchmarks, while a miss would keep the stock range‑bound near the $2,700 support zone.