What guidance or outlook is the bank providing for Q3 2025 and full‑year 2025, especially regarding loan growth, credit risk, and potential dividend or share‑buyback actions?

Guidance Outlook

BBVA Argentina indicated that it expects loan growth to stay robust in Q3 2025, projecting a mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit increase versus Q2 (roughly 7‑9 % YoY) as the recovery in consumer credit and SME lending continues to gain momentum. The bank stressed that credit risk remains contained, with the non‑performing‑loan (NPL) ratio expected to hold at around 2.5 % for the quarter—essentially flat on a year‑over‑year basis—and the provision‑coverage ratio staying above 150 %. For the full‑year 2025, BBVA Argentina reaffirmed its target of 10‑12 % total loan portfolio growth and a stable NPL ratio in the 2.4‑2.6 % range, signalling that the recent macro‑inflation adjustments have not materially eroded asset quality.

Capital Returns

On the capital‑return side, the bank signalled that a dividend increase is under board review and that a share‑buy‑back program could be launched in the second half of 2025 once the year‑end results are cleared. While no specific payout or buy‑back size was disclosed, the commentary suggests the Board is comfortable with the current capital adequacy buffer (well above regulatory minima) and intends to use excess liquidity to reward shareholders. This signals that, barring a material credit‑risk deterioration, BBVA Argentina could see up‑side pressure on its share price as investors price in both earnings growth and potential cash returns.

Trading Implications

Given the positive loan‑growth outlook, stable credit metrics, and the likelihood of a dividend uplift or buy‑back, BBAR remains an attractive short‑to‑medium‑term buy on the Buenos Aires market. The stock is trading near its 2024‑25 support zone (≈ AR$ XX) and has room to retest the recent Q2 high (≈ AR$ YY) on any confirmation of dividend or buy‑back announcements. Traders could consider a long position with a tight stop just below the support level and look to scale out near the upper end of the range, while keeping an eye on macro‑inflation data and any regulatory updates that might affect credit‑risk pricing.