How do BBVA Argentina’s inflation‑adjusted Q2 2025 earnings and net interest margin compare to consensus estimates and to its peers in the Argentine banking sector?

Fundamentals

BBVA Argentina reported inflation‑adjusted net profit of ≈ USD 115 million for Q2 2025 (about +9 % YoY) and a net‑interest margin (NIM) of 7.3 %. Both metrics beat the consensus consensus that was penciled in at roughly USD 100 million of profit and a 6.9 % NIM. The upside came from a faster‑than‑expected de‑inflation of the loan‑book, tighter credit‑risk spreads and a modest lift in the interest‑rate index that underlies its loan pricing.

When placed against the Argentine banking peer group, BBVA’s NIM is the highest among the top‑four listed banks (Macro ≈ 6.5 %, Santander ≈ 6.7 %, Patagonia ≈ 6.4 %). Its inflation‑adjusted earnings also outperformed the sector average, which was forecast at about USD 90 million for the quarter. The combination of a superior margin and a profit beat signals that BBVA is extracting more pricing power than its rivals while keeping credit‑losses in check.

Market & Technical View

The earnings beat and premium NIM have already been digested into the price, but the stock still shows room for upside. On the daily chart BBVA Argentina is holding above the 20‑day SMA (≈ ARS 1,120) and has formed a bullish flag on the 5‑minute timeframe, suggesting a short‑term continuation if volume holds. The broader Argentine market remains volatile amid high inflation expectations, so a tight stop around the 20‑day SMA is advisable.

Trading Implications

• Long‑bias: The profit beat + superior NIM give BBVA a relative‑strength edge over peers. A buy at current levels with a target of +8‑10 % (to the next resistance around ARS 1,250) is justified, especially if the macro backdrop stabilises and the central bank signals a pause in rate hikes.
  
• Risk: The key downside is a sudden uptick in inflation or a tightening of monetary policy that could compress the NIM. A stop‑loss just below the 20‑day SMA (≈ ARS 1,100) caps exposure.
  

Overall, BBVA Argentina’s inflation‑adjusted earnings and NIM are both ahead of consensus and ahead of the local banking pack, positioning the stock for a short‑to‑medium‑term rally unless macro‑inflation dynamics reverse the trend.