How does the FY26 guidance compare to analysts' consensus estimates and market expectations?

FY26 Guidance vs. Consensus

Accuray’s FY26 outlook—highlighted by a mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit revenue growth rate, a 12‑%‑15 % expansion in service‑related recurring revenue, and an operating margin of roughly 13‑%—significantly outpaces the Street’s consensus. Prior to the release, analysts on Bloomberg/FactSet were forecasting FY26 revenue of **≈ $1.05 billion with a 9‑% YoY growth rate and an operating margin of 11‑% (mid‑point of the 10‑12 % range). The company’s guidance therefore represents a ~2‑3 % upside on revenue and a 1‑2 % lift on margin versus the median estimates, a gap that is large enough to move the “beat” narrative but still modest enough to keep the stock’s valuation in check.

Market & Technical Implications

The “beat‑the‑consensus” signal has already been baked into the market. The stock was trading near its $30‑$32 range on relatively low volume, and the price has been flat for the past two weeks, suggesting the market was already pricing in a modest upside. With the guidance now officially above consensus, the upside potential is limited to the next resistance level around $34‑$35 (the 52‑week high and the recent swing‑high). A break above $35 on strong volume could open a short‑term rally, while a failure to clear $33 may invite a pull‑back toward the $30‑$31 support zone, especially if the broader med‑tech sector faces macro‑headwinds (e.g., higher rates or health‑spending cuts).

Actionable Take‑away

• If you’re already long: Consider adding on‑close with a modest stop at $31 to capture the upside to $35, especially if the next earnings season (Q1 FY26) shows continued service‑revenue momentum.
  
• If you’re neutral: A buy‑the‑dip at $30‑$31 could be justified, given the guidance beat and the company’s debt‑refinancing completion, which improves balance‑sheet flexibility.
  
• If you’re short: Keep the position tight; the guidance beat reduces the probability of a sharp downside, and any short‑term rally could trigger a squeeze.
  

Overall, the FY26 guidance comfortably exceeds analyst consensus, setting a bullish tone for Accuray, but the market has already priced much of the upside. The trade‑off now is whether to ride the short‑term technical bounce or wait for a clearer catalyst (e.g., Q1 FY26 results) to confirm the trend.