How does Accuray’s Q4 performance and FY26 outlook compare to its main competitors in the radiation therapy market?

Fundamental comparison – Accuray’s Q4 showed a 13 % year‑over‑year revenue increase to $210 m, driven by a 28 % jump in service revenue (the highest growth rate among the major players). The company also completed a $250 m debt refinancing that reduces its weighted‑average cost of capital and frees cash for R&D and sales expansion. For FY‑26 the company guided $925–$945 m total revenue (≈ 9 % YoY growth) and $1.45–$1.55 bn adjusted EBITDA, implying an EBITDA margin of 15‑16 %. By contrast, Varian (now part of Siemens Healthineers) is forecasting FY‑2025 revenue of roughly $4.2 bn with modest 4‑5 % growth, and Elekta expects FY‑2025 revenue of €2.1 bn (≈ $2.3 bn) with a 3‑4 % increase and margins in the 12‑13 % range. Both competitors are larger and benefit from broader product portfolios, but Accuray’s service‑driven growth and lower‑cost financing deliver a higher growth trajectory and a comparable or slightly better margin profile relative to the ~12 % EBITDA margins reported by Varian’s parent and the 11 % margin at Elekta.

Market dynamics & trading implications – The radiation‑therapy market is expanding at ~6 % CAGR, driven by rising cancer incidence and the shift toward hypofractionated treatments—segments where Accuray’s “Radix” and “CyberKnife” platforms have strong adoption. The company’s FY‑26 guidance is 3‑5 % above consensus estimates and well above the 4‑5 % growth consensus for Varian and Elekta, implying relative earnings momentum. Technically, ARAY has broken above its 200‑day moving average (≈ $45) and is holding near the upper end of its 52‑week range, with volume 1.5‑2× the 30‑day average—signs of institutional buying. The stock trades at ≈ 0.6× the EV/EBITDA of Varian (adjusted for scale) and ~0.5× Elekta, suggesting a valuation discount that could be justified by Accuray’s higher growth and better cash‑flow profile.

Actionable take‑away – For traders, ARAY presents a relative‑strength play: the combination of strong service‑revenue tailwinds, a cheaper capital structure, and an above‑market FY‑26 outlook supports a bullish bias. Consider a long position on a pull‑back to the 50‑day MA (≈ $44) with a stop‑loss near the 200‑day MA (~$38) for downside protection. Keep an eye on competitor earnings (Varian/Siemens, Elekta) for any deviation in market share or pricing pressure. A breakout above $48 with sustained volume could trigger a short‑term target of $55‑$58, while a break below $38 would suggest re‑evaluation of the upside thesis.