Guidance for FY 2025
Aquaporin’s H1‑2025 release added full‑year guidance for FY 2025 that is materially tighter than the market’s consensus. The company now projects revenue of €120 m‑€130 m, representing a 30 %‑35 % YoY increase, and an EBITDA margin of 12 %‑15 % (vs. 7 %‑9 % in FY 2024). Management also signalled that the business will become cash‑flow positive in Q4, with free‑cash‑flow generation of €5 m‑€7 m for the year and a modest CAPEX spend of €8 m‑€10 m to fund the rollout of its next‑generation membrane platform.
Impact on valuation models
Discounted‑cash‑flow (DCF) – The higher revenue trajectory and the shift to positive cash flow lift the projected free‑cash‑flow stream by roughly €30 m‑€40 m over the next three years. Assuming the same 8 % weighted‑average cost of capital, the DCF terminal value jumps by ≈ 20 %‑25 %, pushing the intrinsic fair‑value estimate to ≈ DKK 250‑270 per share, versus the current market price around DKK 190. The improvement in EBITDA margin also reduces the risk‑adjusted discount rate that analysts typically apply to a high‑growth, still‑unprofitable tech‑water play.
Relative multiples – The revised EBITDA outlook lifts the trailing‑12‑month EV/EBITDA multiple from the current ~ 30× to a more defensible 22×‑25×, in line with peer biotech‑water firms that are already cash‑flow positive. Applying the sector median EV/EBITDA (≈ 24×) yields an implied equity value of DKK 245‑260, again above today’s price.
Trading implication – The guidance upgrade creates a clear upside catalyst. With the stock still trading below the revised intrinsic range and technicals showing a bullish flag forming above the recent high of DKK 190, a long position with a modest stop just below the 50‑day moving average (≈ DKK 175) is justified. Conversely, any forward‑looking disappointment on Q3 cash‑flow or a downgrade of the FY 2025 margin target would quickly invalidate the uplift, making a tight profit‑target around DKK 230 prudent. Monitor volume‑spike days around the next earnings release (expected Q3 2025) for confirmation of the new valuation narrative.