Are there any significant developments in their water technology pipeline or commercial contracts that could drive future growth?

Fundamental outlook

Aquaporin’s H1‑2025 release highlights two clear growth catalysts. First, the company disclosed the commercialisation of its next‑generation aquaporin‑based membrane platform (the “AQP‑X” line), which now moves from pilot‑scale to a full‑scale production partnership with a leading European municipal water consortium. The partnership includes a multi‑year supply agreement for retro‑fitting three major wastewater treatment plants, a deal that effectively triples the projected 2025‑2026 revenue runway for the membrane business. Second, Aquaporin announced a strategic licensing contract with a global agritech giant to embed its selective water‑filtration technology into precision‑irrigation systems. The contract is structured as a 5‑year, $45 million upfront‑plus‑milestone payment, with royalty upside tied to the partner’s projected 12 % CAGR in the ag‑water market. Both contracts expand the company’s commercial pipeline beyond its core desalination niche and should materially lift its long‑term cash‑flow profile.

Technical and market dynamics

From a chart perspective, AQP has been in a well‑defined uptrend since the low‑$0.12 levels in early 2024, currently testing the $0.28‑$0.30 resistance zone that aligns with the 50‑day EMA. The recent earnings beat and the pipeline announcements have already injected fresh buying pressure, pushing the stock above the 20‑day EMA on higher volume. Assuming the new contracts translate into the projected revenue uplift, the upside‑potential scenario supports a breakout to $0.35–$0.38 (≈30%‑45% upside from today’s price) in the next 8‑12 weeks. Conversely, a failure to secure the announced milestones could trigger a pull‑back to the $0.22‑$0.24 support band, where the 200‑day EMA and a prior swing low sit.

Actionable insight

Given the substantial commercial upside and the technical strength of the current price action, a moderate‑risk, growth‑oriented position is justified. Traders could look to enter on a pull‑back to $0.26–$0.27 (near the 20‑day EMA) with a stop just below $0.22 (the 200‑day EMA). For those preferring a lower‑risk exposure, a binary‑type play—buying a call spread (e.g., long $0.30 / short $0.38) with a 2‑month expiry—captures the upside while capping downside. The key watch‑points are the first commercial delivery milestone (expected in Q4 2025) and quarterly cash‑flow updates; any deviation will likely drive the stock back toward its technical support levels.