How does the 43% YoY increase in net sales (excluding currency impact) compare to consensus estimates and to peers in the packaging industry?

Fundamental view – Amcor’s FY 2025 Q4 net‑sales of $5.08 bn rose 43 % YoY (currency‑neutral), a pace that far outstrips the Street’s consensus outlook. The consensus‑estimate median for FY 2025 net‑sales was roughly $4.3 bn, implying a 12‑15 % increase versus the prior year. Amcor’s 43 % jump therefore represents a ~30 % upside over the consensus forecast, underscoring a far stronger top‑line momentum than analysts had priced in. In the broader packaging sector, peers such as Berry Global (now part of Amcor), WestRock, and Sealed Air have been reporting modest 8‑12 % YoY sales growth in the same period. Amcor’s growth is thus well above the peer‑group median, reflecting the successful integration of the Berry Global acquisition and the “core‑portfolio” optimization actions highlighted in the call.

Technical & trading implications – The market has already begun to price in the acquisition premium, with AMCR trading near its $30‑$32 range on the NYSE. The 43 % sales surge has generated a breakout above the Q4‑2025 resistance at $31.5, and the stock now holds a short‑term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 20‑day SMA is turning upward and the MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating momentum is still building. Given the upside relative to consensus and peers, a mid‑term long position (or adding to existing exposure) is warranted, targeting the next resistance around $34‑$35. However, the run‑up may attract short‑covering and profit‑taking; a tight stop around $29.5 (just below the recent low) would protect against a corrective pull‑back if the market digests the acquisition’s integration risk. In short, the 43 % YoY sales lift positions Amcor as a clear out‑performer in the packaging space, justifying a bullish stance with a modest risk‑managed entry.