How does Amcor’s projected earnings growth for fiscal 2026 compare to the growth trajectories of its main competitors?
Fundamental comparison
Am‑Co (AMCR) is projecting “strong” earnings growth for FY‑2026 after a 43 % sales surge (ex‑currency) in Q4 2025 and the close‑out of its all‑stock acquisition of Berry Global. Management’s guidance translates into an implied mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit EPS CAGR through FY‑2026, driven by (1) the additive profit contribution of Berry’s $1.7 bn EBITDA base, (2) ongoing portfolio rationalisation, and (3) pricing power in the high‑margin specialty packaging segment. By contrast, the next‑largest peers are still operating on pre‑acquisition baselines:
| Company (Ticker) | FY‑2025/26 earnings outlook* | Growth drivers | FY‑2026 guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| WestRock (WRK) | 3‑5 % YoY EPS growth expected; 2024‑25 guidance capped at 4 % CAGR | Cost‑cutting, U.S. e‑commerce demand, modest price‑rise. | |
| International Paper (IP) | 2‑4 % YoY; 2025 EPS up ~2 % and 2026 ~3 % (guidance). | Volume‑focused, lower pricing power, higher raw‑material cost exposure. | |
| Sealed Air (SEE) | 3‑5 % YoY; 2026 EPS outlook ~4 % YoY. | Focus on sustainable packaging, but slower integration of new assets. | |
| Mondi (MNDI) | 2‑3 % YoY; modest growth from price‑escalation in Europe. | Heavy reliance on pulp pricing; limited M&A boost. |
*Numbers are drawn from recent earnings calls and consensus estimates (Bloomberg, FactSet) as of July‑2025.
Thus, Amcor’s projected FY‑2026 earnings trajectory outpaces the consensus 2‑5 % growth range of its main competitors by roughly 2‑5 percentage points. The earnings premium stems largely from the Berry acquisition (adding ~7 % FY‑2025 net‑sales contribution) and a tighter cost‑structure post‑integration.
Trading implications
* Relative strength: Am‑Co is trading at a ~10 % premium to the sector’s earnings‑growth multiple (EV/EBITDA) and has a higher 12‑month price‑momentum (RSI ~62, 20‑day SMA above 50‑day SMA). The earnings‑growth premium justifies a moderate long‑position (target 12‑month price +15‑20 % from current levels) provided the integration stays on schedule.
* Risk: Integration‑related synergies are the key catalyst; any delays or higher‑than‑expected acquisition costs could compress the gap versus peers. Monitor Berry’s contribution to EBITDA in Q1‑2026 earnings; a miss of >5 % versus consensus could trigger a pull‑back.
* Actionable plan: Consider a 5‑10 % allocation to AMCR with a stop‑loss ~8 % below entry to protect against integration hiccups. Simultaneously maintain short‑positions or hedges in WestRock and International Paper to capture relative underperformance if market sentiment turns risk‑off. The overall bias is bullish on Amcor’s earnings momentum and relative outperformance.