What is the market's expected reaction to the results, and how might the stock price move in the short term?

Market‑expectation & short‑term price dynamics

Because the only information on the market is the scheduled earnings call (the “first‑half 2025 results” for ALK) and the sentiment score is neutral (5), the market will treat the event as a typical earnings‑driven catalyst. In the absence of any surprise in the guidance, analysts’ consensus forecasts, or a material change in the company’s fundamentals, the prevailing expectation is that the stock will remain roughly flat until the numbers are released. However, earnings windows are historically the most volatile periods for a security, especially for a mid‑cap Swedish‑listed name that trades on both the DC and OMX exchanges.

Technical outlook for the next few days

• Pre‑release positioning: The daily chart around the 21‑Aug window is likely to show a modest “pre‑earnings” build‑up in volume as traders either add to existing positions or hedge exposure. Expect the 20‑Aug close to be near the 20‑day moving average (20‑DMA) with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in the 45‑55 band—signalling a neutral stance.
• Post‑release reaction: If the results meet consensus, the price will probably bounce back to the 20‑DMA with limited upside (2‑3 % range) and a quick retracement of any short‑term spikes. A positive surprise (e.g., revenue or margin beat) could push the stock above the 20‑DMA, breaking the nearest resistance at the 10‑DMA and opening a short‑term upside channel (≈ 4‑5 % over 3‑5 days). Conversely, a miss would test the 20‑DMA support, potentially pulling the share toward the 50‑DMA and the next low‑volume swing low (≈ 3‑4 % downside).
• Trading‑play: A low‑risk approach is to wait for the post‑earnings price action. If the stock gaps up > 2 % on the news and holds above the 20‑DMA, consider a breakout‑long with a stop just below the 20‑DMA. If it gaps down and fails to recover above the 20‑DMA, a short‑bias with a stop at the 20‑DMA is prudent. Keep position sizes modest, as the half‑year results can still generate 1‑2 % intraday swings on the back‑of‑envelope commentary and analyst revisions.