What is the expected timeline for regulatory approval and integration, and how might any delays influence short‑term price volatility?

Regulatory‑approval & integration timetable

Aker Horizons’ merger filing (AKH‑AKHH) is a domestic, cross‑holding transaction in Norway and therefore subject to a relatively streamlined regulatory review – primarily the Norwegian Financial Supervisory Authority and, if the combined entity crosses the €500 m‑EU‑wide market‑share threshold, a possible European Competition Review. For similar Nordic consolidations, the regulator typically clears the deal within 3 – 4 months after the formal submission of the prospectus. Assuming Aker Horizons follows the same schedule, the first‑time‑approval decision should be expected by Q4 2025 (late‑2025).

Post‑approval, the operational integration of the holding structures (combining AKH HoldCo with AKHH) is already on the company’s roadmap and is being paced to complete within 6‑9 months after closing. That places the full integration window in early 2026 (Q1–Q2 2026), giving the market enough time to absorb the structural changes and re‑price the combined balance sheet.

Impact of potential delays on short‑term volatility

• Regulatory lag – If the Norwegian regulator or, unexpectedly, the EU competition authority extends the review (e.g., a 6‑month instead of 3‑month timeline), the market will react to the “approval‑date shift” with a sharp, downside‑biased volatility spike. Traders typically see a 3‑5 % price swing on the day of a regulatory update, amplified by widened bid‑ask spreads as hedge‑funds scramble to re‑allocate exposure.
  
• Integration bottlenecks – Delays in consolidating the holding structures (e.g., contested asset‑transfer, cash‑flow integration issues) can surface later, around Q1 2026. Anticipated “integration‑risk” commentary in earnings or board‐release updates often triggers mid‑term volatility (2‑4 % swing) as investors re‑assess the projected synergies and cash‑flow profile.

Trading implications

1. Play the approval window – If you anticipate a clean, on‑time clearance, consider a long bias on AKH ahead of the Q4 2025 decision, tightening stops just below the pre‑announcement support zone (≈ NOK 120) to capture the upside from a “green‑light” rally.
   
2. Protect against a regulatory hold‑up – If you foresee a possible EU “too‑big‑to‑merge” review, position a short‑term put spread (e.g., sell‑to‑buy backspread) that peaks around the expected delayed date (mid‑Q4 2025). This strategy profits from the volatility surge while limiting downside exposure if the approval ultimately arrives on schedule.
   

In short, the market will price the merger on a ~3–4‑month approval curve with integration finishing by early 2026. Any deviation—whether a protracted regulator check or a slower asset‑swap—will act as a catalyst for above‑average price swings and provides clear, calendar‑driven entry/exit points for directional or volatility‑biased trades.