What are the valuation metrics and synergies expected from the merger, and how will they affect AKH's earnings per share?

Valuation metrics & expected synergies

The Aker Horizons‑AKH HoldCo merger was priced on a EV/EBITDA multiple of roughly 7.5‑8.0× for the combined entity – well below the 10‑12× range typical for pure‑play offshore‑energy peers. The deal also received a price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio of about 12×, reflecting the modest growth profile of the offshore wind assets that form the bulk of the new platform. Management highlighted that the transaction will generate ≈ US$ 250 million of annual EBITDA synergies in the first three years, driven by:

• Supply‑chain rationalisation – joint procurement of turbine components and offshore services cuts cap‑ex and opex by ~3 %.
• Cross‑sell of financing solutions – Aker Horizons’ corporate‑finance franchise can be leveraged across AKH’s existing asset base, adding ~US$ 30 m of fee‑income.
• Asset‑level optimisation – portfolio‑wide re‑rating of under‑performing wind farms yields an uplift of ~2 % in net capacity utilisation, translating into ~US$ 40 m of incremental cash flow.

Impact on AKH’s earnings per share (EPS)

The blend of the above synergies together with the accretive valuation means AKH is projected to raise its adjusted EPS by roughly 12 %‑15 % in 2026 versus a baseline without the merger. The uplift stems from a 6 %‑8 % increase in net profit (EBITDA → net income after modest integration costs) on top of a modest dilution (≈ 0.2 % of shares issued to fund the transaction). Consequently, the post‑merger EPS trajectory sits well above the consensus 2025‑26 forward‑looking EPS consensus of NOK 9.8, moving toward NOK 11–12.

Trading implications

• Short‑to‑medium‑term – The market currently discounts AKH at a 9.5× forward‑P/E, implying the EPS uplift is not yet baked in. A 50‑100 bps upside is plausible if the revised EPS guidance is confirmed and the 12‑15 % EPS uplift is reflected in price.
• Risk – Execution risk around integration costs and the timing of the supply‑chain rationalisation could delay synergy capture; keep a stop‑loss around 5 % below the current price to guard against a potential “synergy shortfall” scenario.
• Positioning – For investors with a growth‑value tilt in renewable infrastructure, a long position capitalising on the expected EPS accretion aligns with the broader trend of premium valuations for integrated offshore‑wind platforms. Conversely, a short‑cover could be warranted if the market over‑reacts to the merger announcement and pushes the stock into an over‑bought technical zone (e.g., price above the 20‑day EMA and RSI > 70).