How will the reported comparable sales growth affect Zumiez's revenue guidance for FY2025?

Fundamental impact

Comparable‑sales growth is the primary “top‑line” driver for Zumiez, so the 2.5 % Q2 uplift—particularly the 4.2 % gain in North America and an 11.2 % rise to‑date for Q3‑to‑date—signals that the FY2025 revenue trajectory is materially stronger than the baseline assumptions. Management will likely revise FY2025 revenue guidance upward, probably by 3‑5 % on a total‑company basis, to reflect the accelerating same‑store momentum that is already out‑of‑step with the prior outlook. Because comparable‑sales growth translates directly into same‑store sales and, consequently, top‑line revenues, the upgrade will tighten the earnings‑margin outlook as the cost structure remains relatively flat.

Market‑dynamic and trading take‑away

The market has already priced in a modest upside (Sentiment 55) but a formal guidance lift will provide a catalyst for a short‑run rally. Technically, ZUMZ has been testing the 50‑day moving average near $15.00 and holding above the 20‑day line; a guidance bump could push the stock back up toward the $17–$18 resistance band, especially if the volume holds steady. Traders can look for a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (≈ $15.30) as a lower‑‑risk entry point, with a stop just below the 50‑day EMA (≈ $14.80). Given the positive sales trends and the likelihood of a raised FY2025 revenue outlook, a long‑biased stance is advisable until the next earnings update, while keeping an eye on any forward‑looking commentary that might temper the upside (e.g., inventory or margin pressure).