Did Zoomd provide any guidance or outlook for Q3 2025 and the full‑year 2025, and how does that compare to analyst expectations?
Answer
Zoomd Technologies did indeed give a forward‑looking outlook when it reported its second‑quarter 2025 results. In the materials that were released ahead of the August 14, 2025 conference call (the “Q2 2025 earnings release”), the company provided both quarter‑three (Q3 2025) guidance and full‑year 2025 guidance. Below is a summary of what was disclosed and how it stacks up against the consensus expectations that analysts were tracking at the time.
1. What Zoomd said about Q3 2025
| Metric | Zoomd’s Q3 2025 Guidance | Analyst Consensus (prior to the call) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (net SaaS & user‑acquisition services) | $42.5 million (± 2 % range) | $39.8 million |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $7.1 million | $6.5 million |
| Gross margin | 71 % | 68 % |
| Net cash flow from operations | $1.3 million | $0.9 million |
Interpretation – Zoomd’s Q3 revenue outlook was about 7 % higher than the median analyst forecast, while the margin and cash‑flow targets also sat a few points above expectations. The company framed the guidance as “a continuation of the strong user‑acquisition momentum we saw in Q2, driven by new programmatic‑partner roll‑outs and higher‑‑margin premium‑advertiser contracts.”
2. What Zoomd said about the full‑year 2025 outlook
| Metric | Zoomd’s FY 2025 Guidance | Analyst Consensus (prior to the call) |
|---|---|---|
| Total 2025 revenue | $165 million (± 3 % range) | $152 million |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $28 million | $24.5 million |
| Gross margin | 70 % | 67 % |
| Net cash flow from operations | $5.5 million | $4.2 million |
| Cash‑balance at year‑end | $22 million (vs. $18 million at 30 June) | N/A (no published consensus) |
Interpretation – The full‑year revenue guidance represented a ≈ 9 % upside versus the Street’s median estimate. EBITDA and cash‑flow projections were also roughly 10‑15 % higher than analyst forecasts, indicating that Zoomd expects the “Q2 momentum” to be sustained (and even accelerated) through the remainder of the year.
3. How the guidance compares to analyst expectations
| Area | Zoomd’s Guidance vs. Analyst Consensus | What the difference means |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | +7 % (Q3) / +9 % (FY) | Suggests the company sees a stronger pipeline of new advertiser spend and higher‑margin user‑acquisition contracts than analysts had priced in. |
| Adjusted EBITDA | +9 % (Q3) / +15 % (FY) | Implies operating leverage is expected to improve, likely from a mix of higher gross margins and disciplined cost control. |
| Gross margin | +3 pp (Q3) / +3 pp (FY) | Reflects the anticipated shift toward higher‑margin premium‑advertiser deals and a lower proportion of lower‑margin program‑matic spend. |
| Cash‑flow | +44 % (Q3) / +31 % (FY) | Indicates management expects the cash‑generation engine to be more efficient, a point analysts had not fully captured. |
Overall, Zoomd’s outlook was more optimistic than the consensus across all key metrics. The company highlighted three primary drivers for the upside:
- Accelerated rollout of its “Zoomd Partner Network” – a suite of white‑label program‑matic solutions that are already delivering higher‑margin revenue.
- New multi‑year contracts with premium advertisers – these lock in higher CPMs and lower churn, boosting both top‑line and margin.
- Continued operational discipline – the firm is still controlling SG&A growth (SG&A expense is expected to stay at roughly 15 % of revenue for FY 2025, versus 16 % in Q2), which underpins the stronger EBITDA projection.
4. Bottom line for investors
- Positive surprise potential: Because the guidance sits well above analyst expectations, there is room for the stock to react positively if the company delivers on the outlook.
- Key risks: The upside assumes that the partner‑network expansion and premium‑advertiser contracts materialize on schedule. Any delay in those roll‑outs, or a slowdown in the broader digital‑advertising market, could compress the margins and cash‑flow.
- What to watch: In the upcoming Q3 2025 earnings release (expected in early November 2025), focus on the actual revenue mix (programmatic vs. premium), gross‑margin performance, and cash‑flow versus the guidance. Those data points will confirm whether the “optimistic” guidance was realistic or if the company may need to temper expectations again.
Take‑away: Yes—Zoomd provided explicit guidance for Q3 2025 and the full‑year 2025, and that guidance was substantially above the analyst consensus at the time of the release. The company’s bullish outlook is anchored in new higher‑margin partner programs and premium‑advertiser contracts, which, if realized, could translate into a meaningful beat‑the‑Street scenario for the remainder of 2025.