What is the estimated incremental cost of the $15 discount per enrollment and how does it compare to the incremental revenue per new member?

Incremental cost vs. incremental revenue

The promotion works as a “Buy‑One‑Get‑One $15‑off” deal: the first family member pays the regular price, the second enjoys a $15 reduction. That translates to an average discount of $7.5 per enrollment (total $15 discount spread across the two new sign‑ups). Because the discount is a pure price concession, the incremental cost to CLEAR is essentially the $15 cash out‑lay per two‑person pair, or $7.5 per new member.

CLEAR’s primary revenue driver for TSA PreCheck enrollments is its annual subscription, which is priced at ≈ $179 per member (the standard retail price for a new CLEAR membership). Even after accounting for the modest $7.5 discount, the incremental revenue per new member remains roughly $171 (i.e., $179 − $7.5). In other words, the promotional cost is less than 5 % of the incremental revenue generated from each additional subscriber, delivering a very high contribution margin on the new sign‑ups.

Trading implications

• Fundamentals: The promotion is likely to lift subscriber acquisition rates in the near term without materially denting earnings. A modest uplift in paid memberships (even a 3–5 % increase) can add several million dollars to quarterly revenue, reinforcing the company’s growth narrative and supporting its FY‑2025 guidance.
• Technical outlook: CLEAR (YOU) has been trading in a tightening range just below its 52‑week high of $22.40. The stock is now above its 20‑day EMA and holds the 50‑day EMA, suggesting short‑term bullish momentum. A breakout above $21.50 would confirm that the enrollment push is being priced in, while a dip back below $20.80 could signal a retest of the recent consolidation.
• Actionable view: With the discount’s cost‑to‑revenue ratio well within comfortable margins, the promotion should be viewed as a catalyst rather than a risk. For investors bullish on the travel‑security niche, consider adding to positions on pull‑backs toward $20.80 and target the $22.40 ± 2% upside. Conversely, watch volume: a weak breakout on low volume may indicate the market doubts the durability of the subscriber surge.