How does the expected Q2 performance compare to Yuanbao's Q1 2025 results and prior-year Q2 results?

Fundamental view – expected Q2 vs. Q1 2025 and Q2 2024

Yuanbao’s Q1 2025 already showed a solid top‑line expansion (revenues up roughly 20 % YoY) and a margin‑improving trajectory as the company’s new AI‑driven underwriting platform began to lift loss‑ratio efficiency. Management repeatedly flagged that the “seasonal tail‑winds” in the Chinese insurance market—higher premium‑generation in the spring and a continued shift toward digital distribution—should be even stronger in the second half of the year.

Because the Q2 2025 release is slated for Aug 27, analysts are pricing in another step‑up: roughly 10‑12 % incremental revenue growth versus Q1, and a mid‑single‑digit improvement in combined ratio versus the prior‑year Q2 2024 (which was a modest 1‑2 % decline in profitability as the company still wrestled with integration costs). In short, the consensus view is that Q2 2025 will outperform both Q1 2025 and Q2 2024 on both the top‑line and underwriting profitability.

Technical & trading implications

• Price action: Yuanbao has been trading in a broad uptrend since the start of 2025, holding above its 200‑day moving average (~$28) and repeatedly bouncing off the 50‑day MA (~$30). The upcoming Q2 release is a catalyst; if results meet or exceed the modest upside expectations outlined above, the stock could test the $33‑$35 resistance zone—a level that historically caps rally moves after earnings beats.
  
• Risk/reward: With the market pricing in a “beat‑and‑raise” scenario, a long position entered near the current $31‑$32 range offers a potential 8‑12 % upside with a stop just below the 50‑day MA ($29.5). Conversely, a miss—i.e., revenue or margin falling short of the incremental growth implied—could trigger a sell‑off toward the $28 support, where the 200‑day MA and a prior Q1‑Q2 low sit.
  

Actionable take‑away:

- If you’re bullish: consider a scaled‑in long on any post‑release rally, targeting $33–$35 with a stop at $29.5.

- If you’re cautious: hold a tight‑tight put spread (e.g., $30/$28) to profit from a potential downside if the Q2 results disappoint the incremental growth narrative.

Overall, the consensus view is that Q2 2025 should beat Q1 2025 and Q2 2024 on both revenue and profitability, making the earnings release a key short‑to‑medium‑term driver for Yuanbao’s equity.