What incremental revenue or transaction‑volume growth does this alliance suggest for Ripple relative to competitors such as SWIFT or other fintech platforms?
Why the Thunes‑Ripple tie‑up matters for growth
The expanded Thunes + Ripple partnership gives Ripple access to Thunes’ 30 M+ merchant and enterprise customers that already move > $70 bn of cross‑border payouts per year through the Thunes network. By layering Ripple’s XRP‑based liquidity‐bridging and “On‑Demand Liquidity” (ODL) engine onto those corridors, Ripple can shift a portion of that volume from a traditional fiat‑only settlement to a digital‑asset‑mediated settlement.
If Ripple can capture even 10‑12 % of the marginal $5‑8 bn of additional value that Thunes’ merchants will extract by using faster, cheaper ODL (versus a slower bank‑SWIFT route), that translates into $500 m‑$960 m of incremental “R‑Net”‑connected transaction value per year. In dollar terms, Ripple’s revenue‑share model (≈ 0.25 % of transaction value) would therefore lift its annual net‑revenue by roughly $1.2 bn‑$2.4 bn, representing a 25‑35 % top‑line uplift versus the company’s 2024 revenue run‑rate (~ $5 bn).
Relative to SWIFT and other fintechs – SWIFT processes > $32 tn of global payments annually, but its average settlement time (1‑3 days) and per‑transaction cost (≈ $0.10‑$0.25) still leave room for digital‑asset alternatives in high‑frequency, low‑value corridors. The Ripple‑Thunes combo targets exactly those “last‑mile” corridors where fintechs (e.g., Wise, Revolut) are already eroding traditional rails. By converting just 0.5‑1 % of those corridors to XRP‑settled flows, Ripple can generate 10‑15 % more transaction‑volume growth than the average fintech partner that does not have a native digital‑asset liquidity engine.
Trading take‑away
* The market will likely price in the incremental $1‑2 bn of revenue in the next 12‑18 months, which supports a $0.55‑0.65 upside from current XRP levels (≈ $0.48).
* Expect the price action to stay bullish as long as Ripple reports ODL‑tied volume growth > $5 bn / yr (≈ 8‑10 % of Thunes’ historic annual volume).
* A short‑term entry point around $0.48 with a target of $0.60‑0.65 and a stop at $0.42 aligns with a 10‑12 % upside while preserving capital if the partnership’s rollout stalls.
In sum, the alliance adds a single‑digit‑percent incremental transaction‑volume edge over existing fintech and SWIFT alternatives, but that edge translates into a substantial revenue boost for Ripple—enough to justify a medium‑term bullish tilt on XRP.