How might the delivery results influence XPENG's revenue guidance and short‑term stock momentum?

Fundamental angle – XPENG’s August‑2025 delivery figures are the most immediate proxy for its near‑term revenue trajectory. If the reported units come in above the consensus (≈ 9‑10 k vehicles for the month) the company will likely lift its Q4‑2025 and FY‑2025 revenue guidance, citing stronger demand and better utilization of its new production capacity in Guangzhou and Zhaoqing. A beat would also reinforce confidence that the latest “Smart‑Ego” models and the OTA‑driven feature upgrades are resonating, allowing XPENG to keep its 2025‑2026 top‑line growth target of 30‑35 % YoY. Conversely, a miss—or a clear slowdown versus the prior month—would force management to temper guidance, perhaps warning of inventory buildup or weaker consumer financing, which historically drags the stock 4‑7 % on the day of the release and can linger as a downside bias for the next earnings window.

Technical & short‑term momentum – The stock is currently trading near its 20‑day EMA (≈ $12.80) with the 50‑day EMA acting as a key support level. A delivery beat typically triggers a burst of buying pressure that pushes price above the 20‑day EMA and into the 50‑day EMA, often sparking a short‑term rally up to the next resistance around $14.0‑$14.5. Volume spikes above the 10‑day average would confirm the move. In a miss scenario, expect a break of the 20‑day EMA and a test of the $11.50 support; a retest of that level with rising volume could present a short‑term entry for traders looking to capitalize on the downside.

Actionable take‑away – Until the actual delivery count is released, keep a tight watch on pre‑market commentary and any revisions to XPENG’s guidance. If numbers exceed expectations, consider a momentum‑based long entry on a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA with a stop just below $12.60. If the results fall short, a short position above the broken 20‑day EMA with a stop near $13.00 (or a put option hedge) could capture the anticipated short‑term sell‑off.