How might the results impact the stock's valuation relative to its historical multiples and peers in the event planning and broadcasting sector?
Valuation outlook:
The Q2 2025 results showed TEN Holdings beating consensus on both revenue and EBITDA, driven by a 12 % YoY lift in event‑production contracts and a 9 % upside in broadcast‑rights fees. After normalizing for one‑off integration costs, the adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 13.5 % versus 11.2 % a year ago. At the current price (≈ $9.20) the forward EV/EBITDA multiple is now about 7.8×, which is still modestly below the historic 5‑year average of 8.4× and well under the sector median of 9.5× (Event‑planning & Live‑Broadcast peers like Live Nation, Informa, and Comcast Interactive). The earnings beat and margin expansion therefore compress the valuation gap, suggesting the stock could re‑price toward its historical mean (≈ $10‑$10.5) as the multiple normalizes.
Trading implications:
- Short‑term: The earnings surprise should catalyze a 2‑3 % upside in the next trading session, especially if volume confirms the move (break above the $9.40 resistance and a bounce off the 50‑day EMA). A tight stop‑loss at $8.80 is prudent given the sector’s earnings‑sensitivity.
- Medium‑term: If the company sustains margin expansion and continues to win higher‑margin broadcast contracts, the stock can trade at its historical EV/EBITDA multiple (≈ 8.4×) implying a target price of $10.5‑$11.0. Watch the next earnings call for guidance on the upcoming festival season; a forward‑looking revenue outlook that beats consensus will reinforce the re‑rating.
- Relative positioning: Compared with peers, TEN is now the cheapest on an EV/EBITDA basis while delivering comparable growth, making it a potential long‑bias relative‑value play. Consider scaling in on pull‑backs toward the $9.00‑$9.20 range, with a view to hold through the Q3‑Q4 earnings cycle.