WSP

Did the company issue any revised guidance for FY 2025 or FY 2026, and what are the implications for the valuation model?

Created August 06, 2025 at 09:01 PM

Short answer:

The press release you provided does not contain any mention of revised FY 2025 or FY 2026 guidance. Consequently, there is no new guidance to plug into a valuation model at this time.

1. What the release actually tells us

Item	What the release says	What is not said
Company	WSP Global Inc. (TSX: WSP) – a leading professional‑services firm	No reference to any change in forward‑looking guidance
Time frame	Q2 2025 results (quarter and six‑month period ended 28 Jun 2025)	No FY 2025 or FY 2026 guidance, either upward or downward
Key financial numbers	Not disclosed in the excerpt you provided (the full release would contain revenue, earnings, cash‑flow, etc.)	No explicit forward‑year EBITDA, revenue growth targets, margin expectations, or capital‑expenditure outlook
Management commentary	Not included in the excerpt	No statements such as “we are raising our FY 2025 outlook” or “we are lowering FY 2026 expectations”

Because the excerpt is limited to a headline and a brief “announcement of results” statement, we cannot infer any hidden guidance language. If the full press release contained guidance, it would have been highlighted in the summary (e.g., “The Company now expects FY 2025 revenue of $X billion, up/down Y%”). Its absence strongly suggests that no revised guidance was issued in this filing.

2. Implications for a valuation model

2.1. Base case assumptions remain unchanged

Continue using the most recent guidance (the FY 2025 and FY 2026 outlook that was issued in the prior earnings cycle or in the FY 2024 annual report).
The model’s revenue‑growth rates, EBITDA‑margin expectations, and capex assumptions should not be altered based on this Q2 release unless the actual quarter results force a re‑calibration (see below).

2.2. **Update the model with the latest actual results**

Even without new guidance, the Q2 and six‑month numbers are valuable for refining the model:

Model input	How to adjust with Q2 data
Revenue growth trajectory	Compare Q2 revenue vs. Q1 and vs. the same period last year. If the growth rate is materially different from the guidance‑based forecast, you may want to smooth the variance over the remaining months.
Margin trends	Look at operating margin, EBITDA margin, and net margin for the quarter. If margins are tighter or wider than the guidance‑based assumptions, consider a modest adjustment to the FY‑wide margin assumptions (e.g., shift by ± 0.5–1 ppt).
Cash‑flow & working capital	Incorporate the actual operating cash‑flow and changes in working capital to re‑project free cash‑flow for the year.
Capital expenditures	If the six‑month capex burn is significantly above or below prior expectations, revise the FY‑capex line‑item accordingly.
Guidance validation	If the Q2 performance is on‑track with prior guidance (e.g., the six‑month results are roughly half of the FY forecast), you can maintain high confidence in the existing outlook. If it deviates, flag the model for sensitivity analysis.

2.3. Increase uncertainty and widen scenario ranges

Absence of updated guidance adds an element of information risk. Even if the quarter looks solid, analysts will be watching the next earnings release (likely Q3) for any guidance tweaks.
In practice, this means broadening the probability distribution around key drivers (revenue growth, margins, terminal growth). For a discounted‑cash‑flow (DCF) model this could be done by:
- Using a Monte‑Carlo simulation with a larger variance on the growth rate inputs.
- Adding a scenario layer: Base case (unchanged guidance), Upside (if management later raises guidance), Downside (if future guidance is cut).

2.4. Valuation multiples

If you rely on relative valuation (e.g., EV/EBITDA, P/E) that uses FY‑estimated earnings, keep using the prior earnings guidance. However, you may want to re‑price the multiples by looking at how the market is reacting to the Q2 results (share price movement, analyst commentary).
A strong quarter without guidance lift can still lead to a multiple expansion if the market interprets the results as a positive surprise.

2.5. Key watch‑list items for the next update

What to monitor	Why it matters
Management commentary in the Q3/Full‑Year FY 2025 earnings call	The first opportunity for guidance revision will likely appear there.
Share‑price reaction to Q2 results	A sizable move may reflect market expectations of an imminent guidance change.
Analyst reports (e.g., broker updates)	Analysts often incorporate proprietary forward‑looking insights not yet disclosed by the company.
Industry trends (construction, engineering, infrastructure spending)	External macro factors could prompt the company to adjust its FY outlook even if internal performance looks steady.

3. Practical steps for analysts/economists

Confirm the absence of guidance – Pull the full press release (or the accompanying earnings presentation) to double‑check that no forward‑looking numbers were disclosed. If you find any, replace the “no guidance” assessment with the correct figures.
Incorporate Q2 numbers – Feed the actual revenues, EBITDA, net income, and cash‑flow items into the FY 2025 forecast, adjusting the run‑rate for the remaining half of the year.
Re‑run the valuation –
- DCF: Update the forecasted cash‑flows, keep the discount rate and terminal growth unchanged, but note an increased confidence interval.
- Multiples: Re‑calculate FY 2025 implied multiples using the revised FY estimate, then compare to current market multiples.
Document the uncertainty – In the model’s “Assumptions” tab, add a note: “No revised FY 2025/FY 2026 guidance disclosed in Q2 2025 release; model retains prior guidance. Sensitivity analysis applied to ± 10 % revenue growth and ± 2 ppt EBITDA margin to capture potential guidance revisions.”
Set an alert – Flag the next earnings date (likely early Q3 2025) for a follow‑up review.

4. Bottom‑line takeaways

No revised FY 2025/FY 2026 guidance was announced in the WSP Q2 2025 results release you provided.
Valuation models should continue to use the most recent guidance that the company issued prior to this quarter (e.g., the FY 2025 outlook from the FY 2024 annual report or the previous earnings release).
Update the model with the actual Q2 numbers to improve the accuracy of the run‑rate and to test whether the existing guidance still looks credible.
Increase the range of your sensitivity/scenario analysis because the lack of fresh guidance leaves a higher degree of forward‑looking uncertainty.
Keep a close watch on the next earnings call (Q3 2025) where guidance revisions are most likely to appear; be ready to re‑run the valuation promptly once that information becomes available.

By following the above approach, you’ll maintain a robust valuation framework that reflects both the concrete data from the quarter and the informational risk introduced by the absence of explicit forward guidance.