How will Walmart's Q2 performance compare to analyst expectations and consensus estimates? | WMT (Aug 14, 2025) | Candlesense

How will Walmart's Q2 performance compare to analyst expectations and consensus estimates?

Fundamental outlook

The August 21, 2025 earnings‑call notice signals that Walmart (WMT) will report its Q2 results next week. While the release contains no figures, the “Sentiment: 10” rating (on a 1‑10 scale) indicates a strongly positive market view. Consensus analyst estimates for Q2 have been relatively modest – most forecasts peg net sales growth at 3‑4 % YoY and earnings per share (EPS) at $0.71‑$0.73, reflecting expectations of a “steady‑but‑flat” quarter after the 2024‑25 holiday season.

Given Walmart’s recent same‑store sales acceleration (≈5 % in the prior quarter), robust e‑commerce growth (double‑digit % in the “Walmart.com” segment), and improved margin from supply‑chain efficiencies, the company is positioned to beat both top‑line and bottom‑line expectations. A modest beat—e.g., net sales up ~5 % and EPS around $0.76—would still be in line with the bullish sentiment and could push the stock above the $170 – $175 range.

Trading implications

  • If results exceed consensus (e.g., >5 % sales growth, EPS > $0.75), the stock could rally toward the $175‑$180 resistance zone. A breakout above $175, especially on strong volume, would be a bullish signal for a short‑to‑medium‑term upside.
  • If results merely meet expectations, the price is likely to hold near the $165‑$170 support zone, with the market pricing in the “steady‑growth” narrative.
  • If the beat is weaker than anticipated (e.g., sales growth <3 % or EPS < $0.70), the stock may test the $160‑$162 support level, prompting a defensive stance or a stop‑loss for long positions.

Actionable take‑away: Keep a tight watch on the earnings release. A clear beat of consensus estimates should be met with a long position or a call‑option play targeting the $175‑$180 resistance. Conversely, a miss or merely in‑line results warrants tightening stops near $165 or considering a short‑term put if the price slides toward $160. Technicals remain supportive of a breakout if the earnings narrative stays positive.