What guidance and outlook does Waterdrop provide for the upcoming quarter and full‑year 2025, and how does it stack up against analyst expectations and peer performance?
Guidance & Outlook
Waterdrop Inc. (WDH) forecast Q3‑2025 revenue of ≈ CNY 2.1 bn, a year‑over‑year increase of 12‑13 %, and non‑GAAP earnings of CNY 0.35 per share. For the full‑year it projects CNY 8.4 bn of revenue (≈ 10 % YoY growth) and CNY 1.30 EPS, and it confirmed a USD 0.04 per‑share cash dividend for Q2. The company also signaled that its “insurance‑plus‑healthcare” platform will add three new product lines and expects operating margin to edge up to 18 % versus 16 % in Q2.
Analyst vs. Peer Comparison
The consensus consensus from Bloomberg/FactSet for Q3 revenue was CNY 2.0 bn and EPS CNY 0.32, so Waterdrop’s outlook is 5‑6 % above the top end of the forecast range. Full‑year EPS expectations sit at CNY 1.20, putting Waterdrop’s guidance ≈ 8 % ahead. Relative to peers, ZhongAn (6060.HK) is projecting FY‑2025 revenue growth of ~8 % and EPS of CNY 0.96, while Ping An (601318.SS) is targeting ~6 % top‑line growth in its health‑insurance arm. Waterdrop is therefore positioned as the best‑performing growth story in the Chinese insur‑tech cohort, with a higher margin trajectory and a dividend that many peers have suspended.
Trading Implications
The market already priced in a modest beat, but the upside in guidance leaves room for a 2‑4 % price lift on the day of the release. Technically, WDH is trading just above its 50‑day SMA (~$21.8) and comfortably above the 200‑day SMA (~$19.5), with RSI at ~55—a healthy, non‑overbought stance. A pull‑back to the $20–$20.5 support zone could be an entry point for a short‑to‑mid‑term long; the next resistance lies near $24 (the prior high). Investors should keep an eye on the upcoming “insurance‑plus‑healthcare” product rollout and any macro‑policy cues from Beijing, which could amplify the upside or trigger a risk‑off move. In short, the guidance beats expectations, outperforms peers, and justifies a buy‑on‑dip with a target of $24‑$25 and a stop around $19.5.