How might the lawsuit affect the credit quality and composition of the fund's underlying bond portfolio?
The pending securitiesâfraud suit puts pressure on WesternâŻAssetâs US Core Bond Fund to preserve investor confidence, which will most likely show up first in the creditâquality profile of the portfolio. Management will be incentivised to trim exposure to the âriskierâ lowerârated holdings that are easiest to question in a fraud case and that could trigger redemptionâdriven selling. Expect a shift toward higherârated, investmentâgrade securities (AAAâAA and highâquality BBB) and a reduction in highâyield or âjunkâ positions. Because the fundâs mandate is still to track the US core market, the move will be incremental rather than a full reâallocation, but the average weightedâaverageârating (WAR) is likely to edge up a few notches over the next 2â4âŻweeks.
From a trading standpoint, the rebalancing will create shortâterm supplyâside pressure on lowerârated bonds that the fund is shedding, while supporting the demand side of higherârated issues as the fund builds a more defensible credit profile. Anticipate modestâtoâmoderate sellâoffs in the fundâs highâyield component and a price bounce in the higherârated segment (e.g., Treasuryâproxy and highâquality corporate notes) as the fundâs cashâflow moves into those securities. In the equity market, the negativeâsentiment rating (â60) and the lawsuit headline will keep the fundâs netâassetâvalue (NAV) under pressure, so a shortâposition on WATFX/WABAX/WABCX spreads relative to a benchmark coreâbond index could be justified until the creditâquality shift is reflected in the fundâs holdings. Conversely, a longâposition on the higherârated coreâbond index may capture the upside from the fundâs reâallocation. Monitor redemption activity and any subsequent filing updates for clues on the pace of the portfolio cleanse.