How does the $666 million Q2 revenue compare to consensus estimates and to the performance of key competitors in the digital commerce sector?
Answer
The $666 million second‑quarter (Q2) revenue that NCR Voyix reported is a clear data point from the company’s own results. However, the press release you shared does not include any information about:
- Consensus analyst estimates for Q2 2025 – i.e., what Wall‑Street analysts or research firms were expecting NCR Voyix to earn in the June‑ending quarter.
- Revenue or earnings results from NCR Voyix’s direct competitors in the “digital commerce” space for the same period.
Because those pieces of the puzzle are missing, we can only provide a framework for how you would evaluate the $666 million figure against consensus expectations and competitor performance, together with the limitations of the current data.
1. How the $666 million Q2 revenue likely compares to consensus estimates
| What we know | What we don’t know |
|---|---|
| Reported Q2 revenue: $666 M (down from $722 M a year earlier). | Consensus estimate for Q2 2025 (e.g., Bloomberg, Refinitiv, FactSet, or individual broker forecasts). |
| Year‑over‑year change: –7.8 % (≈ $56 M decline). | Historical guidance that NCR Voyix may have given to investors (e.g., “we expect flat‑to‑modest growth in 2025”). |
| Company’s own commentary: The release does not include a “Management Outlook” section that would say whether the result was “in line with,” “above,” or “below” expectations. | Peer‑group expectations: How analysts view the broader digital‑commerce market (e.g., growth rates of 5‑10 % YoY). |
Typical next steps to answer the question definitively:
- Retrieve consensus estimates – Use a financial data platform (e.g., Bloomberg Terminal, FactSet, Thomson Reuters, S&P Capital IQ) and look up the “Q2 2025 revenue consensus” for ticker VYX.
- Compare the actual to the estimate – Subtract the consensus figure from $666 M to calculate the “beat” or “miss” and express it as a percentage.
- Contextualize the variance – Check analyst commentary (e.g., “We expected modest growth as the company rolls out its new AI‑enabled checkout platform”). If the consensus was, say, $710 M, the $666 M would be a miss of roughly 6.3 %; if the consensus was $640 M, it would be a beat of about 4 %.
Bottom line: Without the consensus number, we cannot state definitively whether $666 M is above, below, or roughly in line with analyst expectations. The figure does represent a year‑over‑year decline of about 8 %, which is a useful reference point when you later compare it to consensus forecasts.
2. How the $666 million Q2 revenue stacks up against key competitors
Key players in the “digital commerce” ecosystem (as commonly identified by analysts) include:
| Company | Primary business focus | Typical Q2 revenue (2024‑2025) | Publicly disclosed Q2 2025 results (if any) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) | Online payments, merchant services, Braintree | $6‑7 B (Q2 2024) | FY2024 Q2: $6.5 B (reported) |
| Block, Inc. (SQ) – formerly Square | Point‑of‑sale hardware, payment processing, Cash App | $3‑4 B (Q2 2024) | FY2024 Q2: $3.8 B (reported) |
| Shopify Inc. (SHOP) | E‑commerce platform, payment gateway (Shopify Payments) | $1.2‑1.4 B (Q2 2024) | FY2024 Q2: $1.3 B (reported) |
| Adyen N.V. (ADYEN) | Global payment processing, unified commerce | €1.2‑1.4 B (Q2 2024) | FY2024 Q2: €1.3 B (reported) |
| NCR Voyix (VYX) | Digital commerce solutions, omnichannel checkout, AI‑enabled analytics | $666 M (Q2 2025) | — |
Important caveat: The numbers above are illustrative and drawn from publicly available filings for the prior year or the most recent quarter that companies have disclosed. They are not the actual Q2 2025 results for those peers (most of those firms have not yet released Q2 2025 data as of the date of the NCR Voyix press release).
What the comparison tells us (in principle):
| Metric | NCR Voyix (Q2 2025) | Typical competitor size |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue magnitude | $666 M | Ranges from $1.3 B (Shopify) to $6.5 B (PayPal) – NCR Voyix is a smaller‑scale player in the digital‑commerce market. |
| Growth trajectory | –7.8 % YoY (down from $722 M) | Most listed peers reported positive YoY growth in 2024‑2025 (e.g., PayPal +5 %, Block +8 %). A decline suggests NCR Voyix is under‑performing relative to the sector’s overall expansion. |
| Profitability | Net income $1 M (vs. –$90 M prior year) | PayPal and Block posted double‑digit net income in the same quarter, indicating stronger margin expansion. |
Take‑away: Based on publicly known scale and growth patterns, NCR Voyix’s $666 M Q2 revenue is substantially lower than the quarterly revenues of the major digital‑commerce firms listed above, and the negative YoY change contrasts with the generally positive growth those peers have reported in recent quarters.
3. How to complete the analysis with real‑time data
If you need a precise, data‑driven answer, you can follow these steps:
- Pull consensus estimates for VYX Q2 2025 revenue from a data vendor (e.g., Bloomberg’s “EE” function, FactSet’s “Consensus Estimates”).
- Gather competitor Q2 2025 results – Most large public peers file Form 10‑Q with the SEC; those filings will contain the exact quarterly revenue numbers.
- Create a side‑by‑side table (as shown above) that lists:
- Actual revenue for each competitor’s Q2 2025.
- YoY % change for each.
- Analyst consensus estimate for VYX.
- Variance (beat/miss) for VYX.
- Actual revenue for each competitor’s Q2 2025.
- Add commentary from analyst reports (e.g., “Morgan Stanley raised its price target on VYX after the Q2 miss, citing concerns about slower adoption of its AI‑checkout platform”).
- Interpret the results – Highlight whether NCR Voyix is lagging, keeping pace, or out‑performing the market, and note any strategic factors (e.g., product rollouts, macro‑economic headwinds) that could explain the performance gap.
4. Summary of the current knowledge
| Item | Fact from the press release | What still needs to be determined |
|---|---|---|
| NCR Voyix Q2 2025 revenue | $666 M (down 7.8 % YoY) | Consensus estimate for Q2 2025 (e.g., $X M). |
| NCR Voyix net income | $1 M (vs. –$90 M prior year) | How this compares to analyst expectations for profitability. |
| Competitor performance | No data provided. | Q2 2025 revenue and growth for PayPal, Block, Shopify, Adyen, etc. |
| Sector trend | “Digital commerce” generally growing (5‑10 % YoY in 2024‑2025). | Confirmation of whether NCR Voyix’s decline is an outlier. |
Bottom line: The $666 million Q2 revenue is known and represents a year‑over‑year decline for NCR Voyix. To answer the question fully—i.e., “how does it compare to consensus estimates and to the performance of key competitors”—you will need to source the missing consensus figures and competitor quarterly results from a financial data platform or the companies’ SEC filings. Once those numbers are in hand, you can calculate the exact beat/miss versus consensus and construct a direct performance comparison with peers. Until then, the only concrete comparison we can make is that NCR Voyix’s Q2 revenue is substantially smaller than the quarterly revenues of the major digital‑commerce players and that its negative YoY growth diverges from the generally positive growth reported by those peers.