Guidance:
Vipshop did not issue a formal outlook for Q3 2025 in its unaudited Q2 2025 release. Instead, the company supplied full‑year FY 2025 guidance, projecting net revenue of ¥¥73‑75 billion (≈ $10.2‑$10.5 bn), a low‑single‑digit to mid‑single‑digit percent increase versus FY 2024, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 13 %‑14 % (up from 12.5 % in FY 2024). The guidance also flagged an expected 5‑7 % rise in active customers and a modest improvement in gross‑margin contribution from its “new‑brand” and “flash‑sale” segments.
Outlook & Trading Implications:
Fundamentally, the FY 2025 guidance signals a steady, albeit modest, growth trajectory in a market still grappling with slower consumer spending and intensifying competition from Pinduoduo and Alibaba’s “new retail” push. The incremental margin uplift reflects continued gains from higher‑margin private‑label and exclusive‑brand collaborations and a tighter control on logistics costs. However, the absence of a near‑term Q3 projection suggests management is cautious about the short‑run macro backdrop (e.g., potential headwinds from tighter credit conditions and a decelerating Chinese GDP growth forecast).
From a technical standpoint, Vipshop’s stock has been hovering near its 50‑day EMA with the relative strength index (RSI) in the 55‑60 band, indicating limited upside pressure but also no immediate oversold condition. The FY 2025 guidance, coupled with a stable cash‑flow profile, supports a buy‑on‑dip strategy for risk‑adjusted investors: consider entering on minor pullbacks toward the 20‑day EMA (≈ $45‑$47) with a target near the recent high‑low range resistance at $55‑$57. Keep a stop‑loss around $42 to protect against a potential earnings miss or a macro‑driven market sell‑off.