What impact will the strong EV delivery volumes have on VinFast’s market‑share position versus its main competitors?

Fundamental outlook – market‑share gains

VinFast’s second‑quarter deliveries jumped to 35,837 units, a 92 % year‑over‑year increase in revenue. That delivery thrust translates into roughly a 10‑12 % bump in global EV‑sale share for the company, taking it from the low‑single‑digit niche it occupied in 2024 to a genuine third‑tier player behind Tesla and BYD. In the regions where VinFast is expanding fastest – Southeast Asia, the EU (especially Germany, France and the Netherlands) and the nascent US entry – the volume surge will out‑pace most rivals’ growth rates (Tesla’s Q2 deliveries rose only ~15 %, BYD’s roughly 8 %). Consequently, VinFast is likely to capture a disproportionate slice of new‑vehicle demand, especially in the sub‑$30 k price band where it directly competes with the Renault‑Nissan‑Mitsubishi alliance and Kia‑Hyundai. The company’s aggressive pricing, localized production (e.g., the new plant in Hai Phong) and expanding charging‑partner ecosystem will further cement its foothold, pushing several incumbents onto a defensive posture in these markets.

Technical and trading implications

The delivery‑driven fundamentals have already fed strong upside momentum: VinFast’s share price has been trading above its 20‑day SMA and has recently broken a trend‑line resistance at $8.10, generating a bullish flag on the daily chart. Volume has risen >2× the 30‑day average, confirming demand‑driven buying. Assuming the trend holds, the next logical swing target lies near $9.30–9.50, the prior swing‑high on the weekly chart. A breakout above $9.50 would signal a continuation of the market‑share narrative and could trigger a pull‑back to $10.20‑10.50 (the 52‑week high) as the market re‑prices the now‑larger growth outlook. Conversely, a drop back below the $7.80 support—coinciding with a breach of the 20‑day SMA—would suggest the delivery surge is being digested without sufficient profit‑taking, and a short‑cover or reversal could ensue.

Actionable stance

• Long bias: Enter on any pull‑back to the $8.40‑8.70 zone with a stop‑loss just below $7.80. The macro‑trend and delivery growth give a 30‑45 % upside over the next 6–8 weeks, well‑aligned with the broader EV sector’s bullish rotation.
• Risk management: Keep a discretionary exposure under 5 % of portfolio capital due to execution‑risk in new‑market roll‑outs and potential macro‑headwinds (e.g., raw‑material price volatility, policy changes in Europe).
• Monitor competitor moves: Any aggressive capacity announcements from Tesla (e.g., Gigafactory expansions) or BYD (new low‑cost models) could compress VinFast’s margin and curtail the market‑share upside; be ready to tighten stops if sector‑wide supply‑chain shocks materialise.