When can we expect preliminary data or results from the NIGHTINGALE trial, and how might that influence the share price?

Timing of the data release

The press release only states that enrollment for the NIGHTINGALE clinical‑utility trial is now complete. In a typical Phase II/III diagnostic trial the next steps are: (1) follow‑up of the last enrolled patient (usually 6‑9 months for a lung‑cancer surveillance study), (2) data‑cleaning and statistical analysis (≈2‑3 months), and (3) preparation of a regulatory/medical‑affairs package. Given Veracyte’s prior timeline on the PERCEPTA blood‑test (data presented roughly 9‑10 months after enrollment closed), investors should anticipate preliminary safety/effectiveness data in the second half of 2025 (likely Q3‑Q4) and a full read‑out or conference‑call summary by early 2026. The company will probably flag the expected date in its next 10‑Q filing or the August‑October 2025 earnings call.

Potential price impact

Biotech and diagnostic stocks are highly binary around trial read‑outs. If the interim data show a statistically significant improvement in early‑stage lung‑cancer detection versus standard of care, VCYT could experience a 20‑40 % upside on the news day, as the test would be a clear revenue catalyst (potential Medicare coverage, commercial partnerships, and a pathway to a companion‑diagnostic label). Conversely, a neutral or inconclusive result would likely trigger a 15‑25 % sell‑off, especially because the market has already priced in the “completion of enrollment” milestone (reflected in the modest 30 sentiment score). Traders should watch the options market for rising implied volatility as the data window approaches, and consider a straddle or limited‑risk vertical spread a week before the expected release to capture the move regardless of direction. On the technical side, VCYT is currently trading near its 50‑day moving average with modest volume; a breakout above the recent high (~$9.5) on positive data could lock in a short‑term trend, while a break below the 200‑day EMA (~$7.8) on a weak read‑out would provide a clean stop‑loss level for short positions. In short, position exposure only when the data window narrows (≈3‑4 weeks out) and size risk relative to the high‑beta nature of the stock.