What is the expected timeline and scale for commercial uptake of the Decipher test in metastatic prostate cancer treatment protocols?

Timeline & Scale of Uptake – The Cell publication gives Decipher a clear clinical foothold as a predictive companion‑diagnostic for chemotherapy benefit in metastatic prostate cancer. Historically, once a test is validated in a high‑impact journal and backed by a peer‑reviewed study, guideline committees (NCCN, EAU) move to incorporate it within 9‑15 months, followed by payer coverage negotiations that typically close within the next 3‑6 months. Assuming Veracyte can secure CMS and major private‑insurer reimbursement promptly, we should expect the first wave of commercial orders to appear in the late‑2025/early‑2026 window, with broader market penetration (hospital networks, oncology groups) ramping through 2027‑2028.

Market Impact & Trading Implications – The metastatic prostate‑cancer segment represents roughly $150‑$200 M of annual U.S. molecular‑test spend. Even a modest 10‑15 % share capture would translate into $15‑$30 M of incremental revenue for Veracyte, a meaningful boost to its FY 2026 guidance. Technically, VCYT stock has already broken above its 50‑day EMA on the news, with volume 2‑3× the 30‑day average, suggesting the catalyst is being priced in but leaves room for a continuation rally if reimbursement news follows. Traders could look for a short‑term pull‑back entry near the 20‑day EMA (around $8‑$9) and hold through the expected 2026 earnings beat, targeting the $12‑$13 range where the 200‑day EMA sits. A stop‑loss just below the 50‑day EMA (~$7.5) would protect against a potential regulatory snag. Overall, the data points to a medium‑term bullish case on Veracyte, driven by the anticipated commercial rollout of Decipher in metastatic prostate‑cancer protocols.