Impact on revenue forecasts – Health Canada’s new authorization for IX CHIQ® in individuals 12 years and older effectively doubles the addressable Canadian population (now ≈ 40 million instead of the ≈ 30 million adults previously covered). Assuming Valneva can price the vaccine in line with European rates (≈ US$120‑150 per dose) and capture a modest 5‑10 % market share within the first two years, the incremental Canadian sales could add roughly US$45‑90 million of net revenue to the FY 2025‑2026 outlook. The company already disclosed an EU label extension for adolescents, so this Canadian step is likely to trigger an upward revision of the full‑year 2025 revenue guidance by ~8‑12 %, moving the FY 2025 top‑line from the current consensus of US$420 million to roughly US$455‑470 million. The added geographic diversification also improves the “repeat‑dose” profile, as the single‑dose format simplifies procurement for public‑health programs, further bolstering the revenue runway through 2027.
Valuation and trading implications – Valneva trades today at a forward‑PE of ~6×, reflecting the niche‑vaccine premium but also the uncertainty around commercial uptake. The Canadian approval lifts the probability‑weighted cash‑flow model by about 0.4‑0.6 ppts on the enterprise‑value/EBITDA multiple, which translates into a ≈ 7‑10 % uplift in the intrinsic equity value (≈ €3‑5 per share). Technically, the stock has broken above its 50‑day moving average (≈ €4.8) and is testing a short‑term resistance near the 200‑day MA (≈ €5.2). A buy‑on‑dip strategy targeting the €4.90‑5.00 range, with a 12‑month price objective of €5.70‑6.00 (≈ 12‑20 % upside) appears justified, given the catalyst‑driven earnings lift and a still‑moderate valuation relative to peers. Risks include slower than expected public‑health procurement, pricing pressure from competing arbovirus vaccines, and potential regulatory setbacks in other jurisdictions. Monitoring Canadian public‑health tender announcements and quarterly sales updates will be key to confirming the revenue uplift and sustaining the stock‑price rally.