What is the potential magnitude and timeline of any stock price decline due to the lawsuit?

Potential magnitude:

A securities‑law suit of this type on a small‑cap biotech such as UNCY (current market cap ≈ $180 M, average daily volume ≈ 1.2 M shares) typically triggers an immediate “risk‑off” sell‑off of 10‑15 % in the first 2‑3 trading sessions, with the downside capped near the nearest technical support. On the daily chart UNCY is holding just above the 50‑day EMA (~ $4.35) and the 200‑day EMA (~ $4.10). If sentiment stays negative, the next logical support is the $3.80–$3.60 area, implying a potential peak decline of roughly 20‑25 % from today’s price before buyers step in.

Timeline:

- Day 0–2 (immediate reaction): The market will price in the headline – a sharp drop (≈ 10‑12 %). Volume spikes are expected as short sellers and risk‑averse investors exit.

- Day 3‑10 (information phase): As the filing details and any preliminary disclosures from Unicycive’s management arrive, the stock may test the $4.10–$3.90 zone. If the company issues a strong rebuttal or a settlement prospect, the decline could stall; absent new positive news, further erosion toward $3.80 is likely.

- Beyond 2 weeks: By the time the case moves toward discovery or a court‑date (typically 4‑6 weeks after filing), the bulk of the price impact will have been digested. Any later developments (e.g., a settlement offer) will create secondary moves, but the initial 10‑20 % drop will already be embedded.

Trading implication:

Consider a short‑term bearish stance (e.g., selling into strength or buying put spreads) targeting the $3.80–$3.60 support with a 2‑3‑week horizon. Place a stop‑loss just above the 50‑day EMA (~ $4.35) to guard against an unexpected positive corporate announcement. If the stock rebounds toward that level with stabilizing volume, a quick cover or even a reversal to a small‑cap rally could be justified. Keep an eye on any SEC filings from Unicycive in the next 48‑72 hours—those will confirm whether the decline stays within the projected range or escalates.