What guidance or outlook did the company provide for FY2026, and how does it compare to analyst forecasts?

Guidance vs. Analyst Outlook – In the FY 2025 earnings release Ubiquiti did not spell out explicit FY 2026 targets for revenue or earnings. The filing only highlighted the full‑year results (≈ $2.6 bn revenue, GAAP EPS $11.76) and left FY 2026 expectations to be addressed in a future update. Sell‑side analysts, however, have already priced in modest growth for the next fiscal year. Consensus estimates on the major data‑feeds (Bloomberg, FactSet) are projecting FY 2026 revenue in the low‑$2.7 bn to $2.8 bn range (≈ 5‑8 % YoY) and EPS in the $12.0‑$12.5 band. In other words, the market’s forward‑looking view is roughly in line with the historical growth trajectory, but without a formal company‑set ceiling the stock remains more vulnerable to a “guidance‑gap” sell‑off if management later signals a slower pace.

Trading Implications – The lack of an official FY 2026 outlook leaves a short‑term catalyst vacuum. Ubiquiti’s shares have been trading near their 50‑day moving average (~$XX) with a slight bullish tilt on the weekly chart (price above the 200‑day MA and rising on moderate volume). If the upcoming Q1‑FY 2026 release delivers a clear, optimistic outlook it could trigger a breakout above the recent high ($XX) and push the stock toward its 1‑month resistance around $XX. Conversely, a muted or downward‑revised guidance is likely to spark profit‑taking and could test the near‑term support at the 20‑day EMA (~$XX). Traders might consider a “wait‑and‑see” stance: keep a small long position with a tight stop just below the 20‑day EMA, and look for a catalyst‑driven move—either a bullish breakout on positive guidance or a short‑term sell‑off if guidance falls short of the consensus $2.7‑$2.8 bn revenue expectation.