What is the likely effect on the yield and pricing of United Community Banks' remaining preferred securities?
Fundamental view
Unitedâs decision to redeem the entire 6.875âŻ% SeriesâŻI perpetual preferred issue removes an $88âŻmillion layer of nonâcumulative preferred capital and frees up cash on the balance sheet. By stripping out that tranche, the companyâs overall preferredâcapital structure becomes tighter and its credit profile improves â a point that most creditâfocused investors will reward with a higher price on the remaining preferred securities (SeriesâŻA,âŻB, etc.). Because the redemption is being paid at the fixed $25âŻ000 per share (i.e. $25âŻper depositary share) and is funded from cash on hand, there is no âforcedâsaleâ discount; the market will treat the remaining series as a scarcer, higherâquality asset.
Yieldâpricing impact
For a preferred security, yield ââŻcouponâŻĂ·âŻprice. With the supply of preferred shares shrinking and the perceived credit risk falling, demand for the stillâoutstanding series should rise, pushing their market price toward or even above the $25âŻpar level. As the price climbs, the effective yield on those securities will compress (i.e., fall). In other words, investors can expect higher prices and lower yields on Unitedâs remaining preferred securities until the market reâbalances the coupon to a new, lowerâyield equilibrium.
Trading implications
- Long the remaining preferreds: The premiumâprice move creates a shortâduration, lowâvolatility upside as the series trade up on the redemption news.
- Yieldâcurve positioning: Anticipate a modest yieldâdrop (5â10âŻbp) on the surviving series; if you hold a yieldâsensitive position, consider trimming exposure or hedging with a shortâduration bond or a creditâdefault swap.
- Liquidity watch: The redemption will clear the SeriesâŻI order book, so any residual liquidity in the preferred market may thin out. Keep an eye on bidâask spreads; a sudden squeeze could present a brief entry point for a buyâtheâdip if the price overâcorrects.
Overall, Unitedâs capitalâstructure cleanup should translate into price appreciation and yield compression for the remaining preferred securities, offering a shortâtoâmediumâterm bullish case for a long position in those series.