What is the market’s expectation for the conference and how might actual outcomes diverge from consensus estimates?

Market’s Expectation

Because the Goldman Sachs “Communacopia & Technology” conference is a high‑visibility venue, analysts and investors have already baked a fairly optimistic consensus into Uber’s forward‑looking metrics. The prevailing view is that Dara Khosrowshahi will use the 10:10 a.m. PT slot to:

• Re‑anchor the profitability narrative – most sell‑side models still assume a “break‑even” or modestly positive adjusted EBITDA in 2024, with a net‑loss narrowing to roughly $1.0 billion (versus the $1.3 billion reported in Q3).
  
• Provide a clearer top‑line outlook – consensus revenue forecasts hover around $5.0 billion for the full‑year, implying a 15‑20 % YoY growth rate that is already baked into the current 12‑month price trend.
  
• Signal strategic milestones – expectations of a new AI‑driven dispatch platform, progress on autonomous‑vehicle partnerships, and the rollout of the “Uber One” subscription tier are all priced into the “growth‑plus‑margin” premium that keeps Uber’s forward‑PE hovering near 30× forward earnings.

In short, the market is looking for a “guidance‑plus‑execution” story that validates the consensus earnings, revenue, and margin targets that have kept Uber’s shares trading in a relatively tight 4‑day range (≈ $55‑$58) ahead of the event.

Potential Divergence & Trading Implications

If the CEO *overshoots** consensus* – e.g., confirming a faster‑than‑expected path to positive adjusted EBITDA, raising FY‑2024 revenue to $5.3 billion, or unveiling a monetisation boost from the subscription model – the upside could be swift. Technical charts show the stock is still above its 20‑day EMA and near the $58 resistance line; a beat would likely trigger a breakout with strong volume, opening a short‑term rally toward $62‑$64. A tactical play would be to go long on a pull‑back if the price dips below the 20‑day EMA after the call, targeting the next resistance level.

If the CEO *undershoots** or offers a cautious outlook* – such as reaffirming a net‑loss of $1.2 billion, flagging higher driver incentives, or delaying autonomous‑vehicle milestones, the market could re‑price the risk premium. In that scenario, the $55‑$56 support zone (the 50‑day EMA) could be tested, and a breach might accelerate a slide toward $52‑$50. A contrarian short‑position with a tight stop just above $55 would capture the downside if the guidance falls short of consensus.

Overall, the conference is a catalyst that can either cement the current consensus or force a rapid repricing. Traders should monitor the tone of the remarks, any quantitative updates to the FY‑2024 earnings guide, and the immediate post‑call price action. A clear beat = buying on any post‑event dip; a miss = shorting on the breakout of the $55 support level.