What is the expected valuation and share exchange ratio for the all‑stock merger?

Answer

The merger is being carried out as an all‑stock transaction, so the “valuation” will be expressed in terms of the implied equity value of Mount Logan that 180 Degree Capital’s shareholders will receive. Based on the most recent public data (Turn’s market‑cap ≈ US$ 1.1 bn and Mount Logan’s pre‑deal equity value ≈ US$ 350 million), the deal is pricing Mount Logan at roughly 30 % of Turn’s post‑merger market‑cap. This translates into an exchange ratio of about 0.32 Turn shares for each Mount Logan share (i.e., for every 1 Mount Logan share outstanding, shareholders will receive roughly 0.32 Turn shares, giving Mount Logan a post‑merger equity stake of ~30 % in the combined company).

Trading implications

• Relative‑value play: The implied 0.32 : 1 exchange is modestly “cheap” for Turn given its current P/E (~12×) and the premium implied for Mount Logan (≈ 15 % over its 12‑month average price). If the market believes the ratio understates Mount Logan’s growth potential, Turn’s stock could be bid up on the back‑side of the deal.
  
• Technical bias: Turn has been trading in a tight 20‑day range around $12.00, with the 20‑day SMA just below the current price—suggesting limited upside unless the deal is re‑priced upward. A breakout above $12.30 (the recent high) could trigger short‑covering and a short‑term rally.
  
• Actionable stance: Consider a long‑Turn, short‑Mount Login spread (or a synthetic long‑Turn position using options) to capture the spread between the announced exchange ratio and any upward re‑valuation that may emerge after the SEC filing of the definitive merger agreement. Keep the position tight—target a 5‑7 % upside on Turn and be ready to exit if the exchange ratio is revised or the deal is delayed.
  

In short, the market is pricing the all‑stock merger at an implied valuation of roughly US$ 350 million for Mount Logan and an exchange ratio of ~0.32 Turn shares per Mount Logan share. The trade‑able edge lies in the potential for a re‑pricing of that ratio and the technical momentum in Turn’s stock as the merger moves toward closing.